Nomogram underestimates 10-year survival in healthy men selected for radical prostatectomy at age 70 years or older.

Abstract:

OBJECTIVES:To externally review a nomogram developed to predict the 10-year survival probability of men selected for radical prostatectomy. METHODS:A total of 1910 consecutive patients who underwent radical prostatectomy from 1992 to 2004 were studied. The mean age was 64.2 years; the mean follow-up for the surviving patients was 6.3 years. The patients were classified according to age and the Charlson comorbidity score. The 10-year survival probability was estimated for each individual patient, applying a recently published nomogram incorporating these 2 variables. The survival rates estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and the mean values of the nomogram-predicted survival probabilities were compared using 1-sample Wald tests. Subgroup analyses were done after stratification by age and Charlson score. RESULTS:Even including the prostate cancer-related mortality (accounting for 5.1% at 10 years), the 10-year overall survival rate in our sample was somewhat greater than predicted by the nomogram (84.9% vs 81.9%, P = .0222). Subgroup analyses revealed that this difference was attributable to a greater than predicted survival in patients with a Charlson score of 0 and aged > or = 70 years (87.9% vs 74.7%, P < .0001). In contrast, in the other subgroups, the predicted and Kaplan-Meier estimated survival rates did not differ meaningfully. CONCLUSIONS:Clinicians using this nomogram should be aware of a possible underestimation of survival in healthy men aged > or = 70 years selected for radical prostatectomy.

journal_name

Urology

journal_title

Urology

authors

Froehner M,Koch R,Litz RJ,Wirth MP

doi

10.1016/j.urology.2008.09.084

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2009-03-01 00:00:00

pages

610-3; discussion 613-4

issue

3

eissn

0090-4295

issn

1527-9995

pii

S0090-4295(08)01942-0

journal_volume

73

pub_type

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