On avoiding statistical bias in linkage-based counselling.

Abstract:

:Using the Succession Rule of Laplace (1795) and related reasoning, this paper shows how to give unbiased counselling to patients when predictions are to be based on small samples. The recombination fraction can be regarded as a probability parameter, theta, which itself has a probability distribution between the limits of 0 and 1/2. The probability of a recombinant, P(Rec), is not numerically equal to the maximum likelihood estimate of theta, nor is it numerically equal to the maximum posterior probability estimate in Bayesian inference. Rather it is equal to the infinite sum of all possible theta values, each weighted according to its probability density p(theta) which denotes the relative probability that that theta value is the true one. The various published proposals for obtaining an unbiased estimate of theta are shown to be equivalent one to another, except for the simplifying approximations used.

journal_name

Ann Hum Genet

journal_title

Annals of human genetics

authors

Renwick JH

doi

10.1111/j.1469-1809.1990.tb00388.x

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

1990-10-01 00:00:00

pages

321-37

issue

4

eissn

0003-4800

issn

1469-1809

journal_volume

54

pub_type

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