Abstract:
:More than half of the US population has received the smallpox vaccine, but it is unknown what fraction is still protected against infection and disease. Residual protection and age-dependent case-fatality ratios have therefore been widely neglected in the current bioterrorism debate. The author analyzed 1902-1903 data from Liverpool, United Kingdom, and from reintroductions of the disease to Europe in 1950-1971 to estimate to what degree vaccinated cases were protected against developing severe or fatal disease and how quickly this protection waned over time. Protection against severe and fatal disease was lost at the rate of 1.41% per year, corresponding to a half-life of 49.2 years (95% confidence interval: 42.0, 57.3), and protection against fatal disease alone declined 0.363% per year. Thus, even 70 years after primary vaccination, 77.6% of cases were still protected (95% confidence interval: 66.6, 85.4). Protection against severe disease should therefore extend for many decades after a single vaccination, and protection against death from smallpox may even be lifelong for the majority of vaccinees. This protection should greatly reduce the number of severe and fatal cases of disease expected in a bioterrorist attack, but residual protection may also increase the risk that some previously vaccinated cases who develop mild disease may remain unrecognized longer, while moving around freely and disseminating the infection.
journal_name
Am J Epidemioljournal_title
American journal of epidemiologyauthors
Eichner Mdoi
10.1093/aje/kwg225subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2003-10-15 00:00:00pages
717-23issue
8eissn
0002-9262issn
1476-6256journal_volume
158pub_type
历史文章,杂志文章abstract::The relation between use of conjugated estrogens and the risk of uterine cancer was examined among 188 white women with newly diagnosed endometrial cancer and 428 controls hospitalized for nonmalignant conditions requiring surgery at the Boston Hospital for Women-Parkway Division, Boston, Massachusetts, in January 197...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a114414
更新日期:1986-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) may reduce lung cancer risk. Dietary boron may have actions similar to those of HRT; however, no previous study has reported the associations between dietary boron intake and lung cancer risk or the joint effects of boron intake and HRT use on lung cancer risk. The authors examined th...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwn021
更新日期:2008-05-01 00:00:00
abstract::An estimated 3.1 million children die each year because of undernutrition. Although cross-sectional and longitudinal studies have found a protective association between greater parental education and undernutrition in their children, no randomized trial has identified a causal effect, to our knowledge. Using the 1980 ...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 临床试验,杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwx195
更新日期:2018-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::Despite the resulting loss of information, continuous exposure variables are often categorized in epidemiologic data analysis. It has been shown that nondifferential measurement error of exposure can lead to differential misclassification under these circumstances. This paper extends these findings to the misclassific...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a116877
更新日期:1993-09-15 00:00:00
abstract::The authors examined the associations of hostility measured in adulthood with subsequent body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)(2)) assessed at 4 time points over a 19-year period (1985-2004) in a United Kingdom cohort study. A total of 6,484 participants (4,494 men and 1,990 women) aged 35-55 years at baseline ...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwn333
更新日期:2009-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::To evaluate the relation between low cholesterol level and mortality, the authors followed 482,472 Korean men aged 30-65 years from 1990 to 1996 after a baseline health examination. The mean cholesterol level of the men was 189.1 mg/100 ml at the baseline measurement. There were 7,894 deaths during the follow-up perio...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a010272
更新日期:2000-04-15 00:00:00
abstract::From July 1, 1980 to December 2, 1982, all individuals at autopsy at the University of Michigan Medical Center greater than or equal to 65 years of age and selected individuals less than 65 years of age were examined for neuritic plaques and neurofibrillary tangles. Sections of the hippocampal, parahippocampal tempora...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a113897
更新日期:1984-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::To develop a method for assessing preclinical cardiovascular disease risk, models of resting cardiovascular regulation and of insulin metabolic syndrome were derived from information collected from 1991 to 1996 in a culturally heterogeneous sample of 319 healthy men and women (aged 25-44 years) from Miami-Dade County,...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/154.8.765
更新日期:2001-10-15 00:00:00
abstract::Stroke, coronary heart disease (CHD) and total mortality are evaluated from death certificates in enumerated cohorts of 45-64-year old Japanese men in Hiroshima and Nagasaki (1965-1970), in Homolulu (1966-1970), and in the San Francisco area (1968-1972). Total mortality is highest in Japan with no consistent differenc...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a112186
更新日期:1975-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Single patient isolation of adults to prevent spread of infection was studied in five high occupancy community hospitals. The acceptable standard was a guideline for isolation in hospitals, published by the Center for Disease Control (CDC). Overusage of single patient isolation was found to vary between 4% and 96% of ...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a112468
更新日期:1977-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::Immigration from high prevalence areas may contribute to an increased risk of tuberculosis in Europe. This study aimed at quantifying transmission of tuberculosis between and within nationalities among residents of the Netherlands. DNA "fingerprints," on the basis of restriction fragment length polymorphism using mark...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009433
更新日期:1998-01-15 00:00:00
abstract::Proto-oncogenes are genes coding for factors involved in cellular growth, reproduction, and differentiation. Cancer results through mutations of proto-oncogenes or through other mechanisms involving the products of proto-oncogenes. This study asks whether serum proteins immunologically related to the products of proto...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a008995
更新日期:1996-10-15 00:00:00
abstract::Physical functioning measures are considered integrated markers of the aging process. This prospective investigation examined relations between dietary intake of women at midlife in 1996-1997 and prevalence of physical functioning limitations 4 years later, defined by the Medical Outcomes Study Short-Form 36. The samp...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwm397
更新日期:2008-04-15 00:00:00
abstract::A case-control study of women with cervical abnormalities identified through Pap smears, was conducted in the Bronx, New York, to explore the relationship between nutritional intake and cervical dysplasia. Nutrient intake was estimated from computer analysis of three-day food records and 24-hour recall for 169 study p...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a113243
更新日期:1981-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::Evidence suggests a role for progesterone in ovarian cancer development. Progesterone exerts its effect on target cells by interacting with its receptor. Thus, genetic variations that may cause alterations in the biologic functions of the progesterone receptor can potentially contribute to individual susceptibility to...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwi064
更新日期:2005-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Although a number of predictors of adherence to mammography screening guidelines have been identified using traditional statistical methods, many women are not screening according to these guidelines. Recursive partitioning may aid in developing novel intervention strategies to promote this screening behavior by ident...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwi337
更新日期:2005-12-15 00:00:00
abstract::The survival duration for pancreatic cancer is short. Given its low lifetime risk (1.5%), established factors for the disease have insufficient specificity to identify individuals at high risk of nonfamilial cancer, and prediagnostic signs and symptoms are vague and not limited to pancreatic causes. We considered whet...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwv026
更新日期:2015-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::Previous studies have suggested an association between fetal growth restriction and the risk of spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB). However, addressing this association is methodologically challenging. We conducted a prospective cohort study of nulliparous women with a singleton pregnancy in Cambridge, United Kingdom (2...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwv345
更新日期:2016-07-15 00:00:00
abstract::A prospective panel cohort design was used to investigate whether mental disorders common in the general population increase the likelihood of increased cigarette smoking at 12 months follow-up. By 1995, the last year for which data were available, a random sample of 12,057 persons aged 16-75 years residing in private...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/152.7.651
更新日期:2000-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::As part of a prospective study of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in middle-aged Chinese men in Taiwan, 1820 Chinese males, aged 40--59 years, from the middle and upper socioeconomic classes, were characterized at study entry by a history and physical examination with particular reference to cardiovascular status and by ...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a112861
更新日期:1980-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::In the mid-19th century, the German hygienist Max von Pettenkofer viewed cholera as resulting from the interaction between a postulated cholera germ and the characteristics of soils. In order to cause cholera, the cholera germ had to become a cholera miasma, but this transformation required prolonged contact of the ge...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 传,历史文章,杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwm279
更新日期:2007-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Because measles immunization has been found in all studies to reduce mortality with more than the share of deaths attributed to acute measles, the authors examined mortality after measles infection in a study in a rural area of Senegal that included 6,924 unimmunized children, whom 1,118 developed measles. Age-adjuste...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a008667
更新日期:1996-05-15 00:00:00
abstract::The authors studied immune response and exposure to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (dioxin) among veterans of Operation Ranch Hand, the US Air Force unit responsible for the aerial spraying of herbicides in Vietnam from 1962 to 1971. A comparison group of Air Force veterans who served in Southeast Asia but were n...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009749
更新日期:1999-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::The effect on childhood cancer of prolonged exposure to 60-H magnetic fields from electric appliances was examined using interview data from a recently completed case-control study. Exposures of children aged 0-14 years whose incident cancers were diagnosed between 1976 and 1983 and who resided in the Denver, Colorado...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a115566
更新日期:1990-05-01 00:00:00
abstract::To examine the relation of noncontraceptive estrogen use to the risk of breast cancer among postmenopausal women, the authors conducted a case-control study: 1,686 cases were compared with 2,077 hospital control subjects, of whom 1,120 had non-gynecologic cancers and 957 had nonmalignant (also non-gynecologic) conditi...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a116041
更新日期:1991-12-15 00:00:00
abstract::Contemporary searches for new risk factors frequently involve genome-wide explorations of very large numbers of candidate risk variants. Given that diseases can often be classified into subtypes that possess evidence of etiologic heterogeneity, the question arises as to whether or not a search for new risk factors wou...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kws128
更新日期:2012-09-15 00:00:00
abstract::The methods used for selecting subjects yield three types of case-control studies: 1) incident cases are compared to non-cases chosen to be representative of the exposure distribution among the person-years which produced the cases. In this type of study the exposure-odds ratio equals the incidence density ratio; 2) i...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a112614
更新日期:1978-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::This case-control study evaluated the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer associated with genital exposure to various forms of powder application. Cases included all women aged 20-79 years in three counties of western Washington who were diagnosed with borderline or invasive ovarian cancer from 1986 through 1988; 64.3% ...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009128
更新日期:1997-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Active surveillance to detect all patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome who had had onset of illness from July 1, 1976 through April 30, 1977 was undertaken in Michigan after indications that the syndrome might be associated with the National Influenza Immunization Program of 1976-1977. Hospital record room librarians...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a113810
更新日期:1984-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Weight cycling has been associated with an increased risk of death in some studies, but few studies differentiated weight cycling initiated by intentional weight loss from that initiated by illness. The association of weight cycling with death was examined among 55,983 men and 66,655 women in the Cancer Prevention Stu...
journal_title:American journal of epidemiology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1093/aje/kwr378
更新日期:2012-04-15 00:00:00