Atmospheric transport patterns and possible consequences for the European North after a nuclear accident.

Abstract:

:The main purpose of this study is to examine possible impacts and consequences of a hypothetical accident at the Kola nuclear plant in north-west Russia on different geographical regions: Scandinavia, central Europe, European FSU and Taymyr. The period studied is 1991-1996. An isentropic trajectory model has been used to calculate forward trajectories that originated over the nuclear accident region. Atmospheric transport patterns were identified using the isentropic trajectories and a cluster analysis technique. From the trajectory model results, a number of cases were chosen for examination in detail using more complete transport models. For this purpose, the models MATHEW/ADPIC, DERMA and a newly developed FOA Random Displacement Model have been used to simulate the radionuclide transport and contamination in the case of a nuclear accident and their results have been compared with those of the trajectory modelling. Estimation of the long-term consequences for populations after an accident has been performed for several specific dates by empirical models and correlation between fallout and doses to humans on the basis of the Chernobyl accident exposures in Scandinavia.

journal_name

J Environ Radioact

authors

Baklanov A,Mahura A,Jaffe D,Thaning L,Bergman R,Andres R

doi

10.1016/s0265-931x(01)00094-7

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2002-01-01 00:00:00

pages

23-48

issue

1-2

eissn

0265-931X

issn

1879-1700

pii

S0265-931X(01)00094-7

journal_volume

60

pub_type

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