Abstract:
:This study describes the trend of the coefficients of mortality due to cerebrovascular diseases (CbVD) among the elderly in São Paulo State, Brazil, from 1980 to 2012, before and after influenza vaccination campaigns, and identifies change points. It is an ecological, time-series study carried out with death data from the Health Ministry's Mortality Information System and population data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. We used linear, polynomial and joinpoint regression models in the data analysis. Between 1980 and 2012, there were 480,955 deaths due to CbVD. The mean mortality coefficients decreased for both sexes in all age groups we analyzed, with the greatest reduction in the older ages and male sex. We observed a significant reduction in the mortality trend in 1998 for male sex in the age group 60-69 years (annual percent change - APC = -3%, 95%CI: -4.3; -1.6) and for all elderly (APC = -3.8%, 95%CI: -4.4; -3.1). Considering the period as a whole, we did not observe change points for the age group 70-79 (average annual percent change - AAPC = -3.3%, 95%CI: -3.5; -3.1) and, for male sex, for the group ≥ 80 years (AAPC = -2.9%, 95%CI: -3.1; -2.6). For all elderly, the mean percentage reduction was of 3.1% per year (AAPC = -3.1%, 95%CI: -3.5; -2.7). Results show a reduction in the mortality due to CbVD in the period, with different percentage variations in coefficient reduction. The study's findings add information to the debate regarding possible effects of vaccination campaigns in reducing mortality due to CbVD among the elderly. :Este estudo descreve a tendência dos coeficientes de mortalidade por doenças cerebrovasculares (DCbV) em idosos no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, entre 1980 e 2012, antes e depois das campanhas de vacinação contra a influenza, e identifica pontos de mudanças. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico de série temporal, realizado com dados de óbitos do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade do Ministério da Saúde e dados populacionais do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Para análise dos dados, foram utilizados modelos de regressão linear, polinomial e joinpoint regression. Entre 1980 e 2012, foram registrados 480.955 óbitos por DCbV. Os coeficientes médios de mortalidade diminuíram em ambos os sexos para todas as faixas etárias analisadas, com maior redução nas idades mais longevas e no sexo masculino. Observou-se queda significativa na tendência de mortalidade em 1998 para o sexo masculino, na faixa de 60-69 anos (annual percent change - APC = -3%, IC95%: -4,3; -1,6) e para o total dos idosos (APC = -3,8%, IC95%: -4,4; -3,1). Considerando-se o período como um todo, não se observaram pontos de mudanças para a faixa de 70-79 (average annual percent change - AAPC = -3,3%, IC95%: -3,5; -3,1) e, no sexo masculino, para o grupo ≥ 80 anos (AAPC = -2,9%, IC95%: -3,1; -2,6). Para o total de idosos, a redução percentual média foi de 3,1% ao ano (AAPC = -3,1%, IC95%: -3,5; -2,7). Os resultados mostraram redução da mortalidade por DCbV no período estudado, com diferentes variações percentuais de queda dos coeficientes. Os achados deste estudo adicionam informações para o debate sobre o possível efeito das campanhas de vacinação na redução da mortalidade por DCbV na população idosa. :Este estudio describe la tendencia de los coeficientes de mortalidad por enfermedades cerebrovasculares (DCbV) en ancianos del Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, entre 1980 y 2012, antes y después de las campañas de vacunación contra la gripe, e identifica puntos de cambio. Se trata de un estudio ecológico de serie temporal, realizado con datos de óbitos del Sistema de Informaciones sobre Mortalidad del Ministerio de la Salud y datos poblacionales del Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística. Para el análisis de los datos se utilizaron modelos de regresión lineal, polinomial y regresión joinpoint. Entre 1980 y 2012, se registraron 480.955 óbitos por DCbV. Los coeficientes medios de mortalidad disminuyeron en ambos sexos, en todas las franjas de edad analizadas, con una mayor reducción en las edades más longevas y dentro del sexo masculino. Se observó una caída significativa en la tendencia de la mortalidad en 1998 en el sexo masculino, en la franja de 60-69 años (annual percent change - APC = -3%, IC95%: -4,3; -1,6) y para el total de los ancianos (APC = -3,8%, IC95%: -4,4; -3,1). Considerándose el período como un todo, no se observaron puntos de cambios para la franja de 70-79 (average annual percent change - AAPC = -3,3%, IC95%: -3,5; -3,1) y en el sexo masculino para el grupo ? 80 años (AAPC = -2,9%, IC95%: -3,1; -2,6). Para el total de ancianos, la reducción del porcentaje medio fue 3,1% al año (AAPC = -3,1%, IC95%: -3,5; -2,7). Los resultados mostraron la reducción de la mortalidad por DCbV en el período estudiado, con diferentes variaciones porcentuales de caída de los coeficientes. Los hallazgos de este estudio añaden información para el debate sobre el posible efecto de las campañas de vacunación en la reducción de la mortalidad por DCbV dentro de la población anciana.
journal_name
Cad Saude Publicajournal_title
Cadernos de saude publicaauthors
Bacurau AGM,Ferraz RO,Donalisio MR,Francisco PMSBdoi
10.1590/0102-311X00145117subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2019-02-18 00:00:00pages
e00145117issue
2eissn
0102-311Xissn
1678-4464pii
S0102-311X2019000205011journal_volume
35pub_type
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