Abstract：
:The two best known approaches to predicting cardiovascular risk are Framingham and QRISK. Both methods correctly predict less than 70% of cases, with a high ratio of false positive predictions to true predictions. Each uses a combination of predictors that is applied to the data only once. The present approach uses the Discriminant Function with multiple applications. A British sample of data on cardiovascular risk was analysed. Principal Components analysis was used to reveal the underlying structure of the data-it identified four independent determinants of the data. Discriminant Function analysis in three stages was then used to accommodate the difficulties of dealing with multiple determinants. Ninety-four percent of the cases with cardiovascular incidents (CVI) were predicted correctly up to more than 20 years ahead, with a misclassification rate overall of 2.8 errors for every one correct. When checked for likely shrinkage from sample to sample using the Jacknife method 92% of CVI's were correctly predicted. Instead of a single application of a linear combination of predictors to find those people most likely to have cardiovascular events a repeated application of the predictors to the residuals from the previous prediction stage is likely to find a much higher proportion of true predictions and with much less error. The results also allow for a simple way of conveying the risk of CVI to individual patients.
journal_name
Eur J Epidemioljournal_title
European journal of epidemiologyauthors
Marsh RWdoi
10.1007/s10654-011-9634-xsubject
Has Abstractpub_date
2011-12-01 00:00:00pages
915-8issue
12eissn
0393-2990issn
1573-7284journal_volume
26pub_type
杂志文章abstract：BACKGROUND:Previous studies found relations between cardiovascular mortality and minerals in drinking water, but the major works considered water hardness or neglected the differences between adults and elderly. Drinking water is an important source of calcium in the elderly particularly because of increased needs and ...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1023/a:1023618728056
更新日期：2003-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Evidence of an association between early pregnancy exposure to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) and congenital heart defects (CHD) has contributed to recommendations to weigh benefits and risks carefully. The objective of this study was to determine the specificity of association between first trimester ...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/s10654-015-0065-y
更新日期：2015-11-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, data have been accumulated to examine excess mortality in the first half of 2020. Mortality in the preceding year or years is used to calculate the expected number of deaths, which is then compared with the actual number of deaths in 2020. We calculated weekly age- and sex...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/s10654-021-00717-9
更新日期：2021-01-25 00:00:00
abstract：:The aim of this study was to estimate the incidence of morbidity and mortality due to injuries in the population over the age of 14 years in Barcelona, Spain. Injury distribution according to sex, age, external cause, place of occurrence of the injury and severity was also obtained. A one-year survey was conducted in ...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/BF00499459
更新日期：1996-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Vaccinations and infections are possible triggers of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). However, studies on GBS after vaccinations during the influenza A(H1N1)pmd09 pandemic in 2009, show inconsistent results. Only few studies have addressed the role of influenza infection. We used information from national health data-ba...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/s10654-015-0047-0
更新日期：2016-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Biomarkers are considered as tools to enhance cardiovascular risk estimation. However, the value of biomarkers on risk estimation beyond European risk scores, their comparative impact among different European regions and their role towards personalised medicine remains uncertain. Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Asse...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/s10654-014-9952-x
更新日期：2014-10-01 00:00:00
abstract：:The aim of the present investigation is the complex study of experimental infection in pregnant ewes by means of clinical, serological, biological, histological and Electron microscopy methods. Four ewes, pregnant from the 2nd to 5th month, were infected by intravenous (in one case by intraperitoneal) routes with a C....
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/BF00140134
更新日期：1989-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Markers of hepatitis delta virus (HDV) infection have been detected all over the five continents. Geographical prevalence varied heavily: HDV infection is very rare in Far East Asia, but extremely frequent in Arabian countries, in Romania and in certain Indian populations of South America. In Europe and in the USA the...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/BF00237100
更新日期：1985-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:The activity of 34 general practitioners (GP) working in solo practices in six Local Health Units were assessed, as a preliminary step of a main study, to evaluate and possibly improve the quality of GP professional performance using peer review and feed-back information. A wide interpractice variation was observed in...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/BF00150439
更新日期：1990-09-01 00:00:00
abstract：:C-reactive protein (CRP) was proposed as a stronger predictor of cardiovascular events than low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C); however, these associations may differ between myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke. We compared statistically the associations of CRP and LDL-C levels with risk of MI versus stroke...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/s10654-007-9141-2
更新日期：2007-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：:After describing the evolution of mortality from ischaemic cardiopathy (IC) in Spain from 1951 to 1986, which is tending to stabilize in some age groups, and from cerebrovascular accidents (CVA), which is clearly declining, an attempt is made to relate these developments to the prevalence of the main risk factors (hyp...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/BF00145318
更新日期：1992-11-01 00:00:00
abstract：:To assess the association of childhood parental history of type 2 diabetes and the risk of diabetes in adulthood. Observations were made on a community-based cohort of normoglycemic (n = 1619), pre-diabetic (n = 78), and type 2 diabetic (n = 50) adult subjects followed serially for cardiovascular risk factors over 22 ...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/s10654-009-9372-5
更新日期：2009-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：:The aim of this study was to analyze the progression of hand osteoarthritis in rural population and to determine the factors which could influence that progression. Participants of both sexes were 54-56 years of age at the first visit. Radiographs of both hands, anthropometry and blood pressure measurement were perfor...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1023/b:ejep.0000036794.40723.8e
更新日期：2004-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Increased fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) concentrations have emerged as a novel risk factor for heart failure and stroke but not for myocardial infarction (MI). Yet, most studies on MI were conducted in coronary artery disease (CAD) patients and the elderly. Evidence is unclear in subjects without CAD and for str...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/s10654-014-9982-4
更新日期：2015-02-01 00:00:00
abstract：:It has been suggested that Helicobacter pylori colonization may protect against diarrhoeagenic gastrointestinal infections. The aim of this analysis was to investigate the association between H. pylori infection and the frequency of diarrhoeal episodes among adults. Helicobacter pylori infection status was determined ...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1023/a:1015618112695
更新日期：2001-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Most of the epidemiological studies designed to determine the prevalence of Parkinson's disease (PD) in Portugal were hospital-based and the rates reported were around 1/1000. A sentinel network of general practitioners (GPs) has been in effect in the country since 1989, involving doctors with a relatively stable list...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/BF01719295
更新日期：1994-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Measles vaccination schedules and targets of herd immunity have been designed according to the paradigm that the vaccine is as protective as natural infection, and the virus has remained of a single serotype over many decades. As a result, ongoing measles resurgence is mostly attributed to gaps in immunization. Using ...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章,评审
doi：10.1007/s10654-019-00569-4
更新日期：2019-10-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Educational-related gradients in coronary heart disease (CHD) and mediation by behavioral risk factors are plausible given previous research; however this has not been comprehensively addressed in absolute measures. Questionnaire data on health behavior of 69,513 participants, 52 % women, from seven Danish cohort stud...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/s10654-012-9745-z
更新日期：2013-02-01 00:00:00
abstract：:The pattern of faecal excretion of Vibrio cholerae was studied over a duration of eight months among 13 cholera convalescents by two-weekly surveillance cultures. Stools and rectal swabs were cultured on Thiosulphate citrate bile salts sucrose (TCBS) agar for the recovery of vibrio pathogens. Clinical phase and conval...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1023/a:1007541317104
更新日期：1999-04-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Active surveillance for unknown or unsuspected adverse drug effects may be carried out by applying epidemiological techniques to large administrative databases. Self-controlled designs, like the symmetry design, have the advantage over conventional design of adjusting for confounders that are stable over time. The aim...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/s10654-018-0386-8
更新日期：2018-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Language is an important determinant of health, but analyses of linguistic inequalities in mortality are scant, especially for Canadian linguistic groups with European roots. We evaluated the life expectancy gap between the Francophone majority and Anglophone minority of Québec, Canada, both over time and across major...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/s10654-011-9644-8
更新日期：2012-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：:During the period of 1975-1989, in the Belgrade population increasing mortality trends were established for colon and rectal cancer, cancer of the pancreas and gallbladder and bile ducts cancer, for both sexes, and for esophageal cancer in males. Stomach and liver cancer mortality decreased in females. In males, stoma...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/BF01717461
更新日期：1994-02-01 00:00:00
abstract：:To systematically review the literature for dementia prediction models for use in the general population and externally validate their performance in a head-to-head comparison. We selected four prediction models for validation: CAIDE, BDSI, ANU-ADRI and DRS. From the Rotterdam Study, 6667 non-demented individuals aged...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/s10654-018-0403-y
更新日期：2018-07-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Pneumocystis carinii is a widespread eukaryotic microorganism found in the lungs of healthy mammals, including humans. It is able to proliferate extensively in the alveoli, becoming an important agent of severe pneumonitis in immunosuppressed hosts, especially in persons suffering from AIDS. The taxonomic position of ...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章,评审
doi：10.1007/BF00158583
更新日期：1992-05-01 00:00:00
abstract：:The most common diseases affecting middle-aged and elderly subjects in industrialized countries are multigenetic and lifestyle related. Several attempts have been made to study interactions between genes and lifestyle factors, but most such studies lack the power to examine interactions between several genes and sever...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/s10654-013-9787-x
更新日期：2013-02-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Most of the Coxiella burnetii isolates (72 of 80) available in our institute share a 2.1 kb NotI fragment. Sequence analysis revealed two incomplete open reading frames (ORF) for putative genes hemA and bcR coding for glutamyl-tRNA-reductase and bicyclomycin resistance protein, respectively. Upon completing the ORF fo...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/BF01719308
更新日期：1995-10-01 00:00:00
abstract：:An overview of the problem of gastrointestinal (GI) helminthiases in Zimbabwe is given in terms of prevalence, distribution, clinical significance of individual parasites and their transmission patterns. Although data on these aspects are incomplete, the available information and the results of studies conducted elsew...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/BF00140148
更新日期：1989-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:The use of primary care electronic health records for research is abundant. The benefits gained from utilising such records lies in their size, longitudinal data collection and data quality. However, the use of such data to undertake high quality epidemiological studies, can lead to significant challenges particularly...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1007/s10654-020-00677-6
更新日期：2020-08-27 00:00:00
abstract：:Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection was one of the most common opportunistic infections in AIDS patients, leading to blindness or life-threatening disease in about 40% of patients in the later stages of AIDS before highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). In a retrospective multicenter study we investigated the incid...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 临床试验,杂志文章,多中心研究
doi：10.1023/a:1007619323939
更新日期：2000-05-01 00:00:00
abstract：:EUROCAT Northern Netherlands registers children born with a birth defect in the Northern Netherlands. Data used to be collected via a notification form, which is filled out by the notifier and, if necessary, completed by the general practitioner. To increase the amount of information, EUROCAT started using new methodo...
journal_title：European journal of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1023/a:1007656619529
更新日期：2000-04-01 00:00:00
