Abstract：
:We consider a hypothetical series of cases in which the DNA profile of a crime-scene sample is found to match a known profile in a DNA database (i.e., a "cold hit"), resulting in the identification of a suspect based only on genetic evidence. We show that the average probability that there is another person in the population whose profile matches the crime-scene sample but who is not in the database is approximately 2(N - d)p(A), where N is the number of individuals in the population, d is the number of profiles in the database, and p(A) is the average match probability (AMP) for the population. The AMP is estimated by computing the average of the probabilities that two individuals in the population have the same profile. We show further that if a priori each individual in the population is equally likely to have left the crime-scene sample, then the average probability that the database search attributes the crime-scene sample to a wrong person is (N - d)p(A).
journal_name
J Forensic Scijournal_title
Journal of forensic sciencesauthors
Song YS,Patil A,Murphy EE,Slatkin Mdoi
10.1111/j.1556-4029.2008.00917.xsubject
Has Abstractpub_date
2009-01-01 00:00:00pages
22-7issue
1eissn
0022-1198issn
1556-4029pii
JFO917journal_volume
54pub_type
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journal_title：Journal of forensic sciences
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journal_title：Journal of forensic sciences
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