Abstract:
:Migratory animals present a unique challenge for predicting population size because they are influenced by events in multiple stages of the annual cycle that are separated by large geographic distances. Here, we develop a model that incorporates non-fatal carry-over effects to predict changes in population size and show how this can be integrated with predictive models of habitat loss and deterioration. Examples from Barn swallows, Greater snow geese and American redstarts show how carry-over effects can be estimated and integrated into the model. Incorporation of carry-over effects should increase the predictive power of models. However, the challenge for developing accurate predictions rests both on the ability to estimate parameters from multiple stages of the annual cycle and to understand how events between these periods interact to influence individual success.
journal_name
Biol Lettjournal_title
Biology lettersauthors
Norris DR,Taylor CMdoi
10.1098/rsbl.2005.0397subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2006-03-22 00:00:00pages
148-51issue
1eissn
1744-9561issn
1744-957Xpii
L018582226V22104journal_volume
2pub_type
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