Predicting the consequences of carry-over effects for migratory populations.

Abstract:

:Migratory animals present a unique challenge for predicting population size because they are influenced by events in multiple stages of the annual cycle that are separated by large geographic distances. Here, we develop a model that incorporates non-fatal carry-over effects to predict changes in population size and show how this can be integrated with predictive models of habitat loss and deterioration. Examples from Barn swallows, Greater snow geese and American redstarts show how carry-over effects can be estimated and integrated into the model. Incorporation of carry-over effects should increase the predictive power of models. However, the challenge for developing accurate predictions rests both on the ability to estimate parameters from multiple stages of the annual cycle and to understand how events between these periods interact to influence individual success.

journal_name

Biol Lett

journal_title

Biology letters

authors

Norris DR,Taylor CM

doi

10.1098/rsbl.2005.0397

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2006-03-22 00:00:00

pages

148-51

issue

1

eissn

1744-9561

issn

1744-957X

pii

L018582226V22104

journal_volume

2

pub_type

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