[Homicide progression per geographical area in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil, 1980-1998].

Abstract:

OBJECTIVE:To analyze the magnitude and growth of homicides among male population according to the geopolitical areas. METHODS:An ecological study including a time series analysis was carried out among 15 to 49 year-old males living in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. Mortality data was collected from the Ministry of Health's Mortality Information System. Data on population was from the 1980 and 1991 censuses and the 1996 Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics' census. For inter-census years, the population size was estimated by interpolation, and for the period 1997-1998 it was estimated by projection, using the geometric method. Statistical analysis was performed using mobile mean and regression analysis techniques. RESULTS:In the 1980s, the greatest increase in homicide rates was in the state capital (390%). In the 1990s, the greatest increase occurred in the metropolitan region (68.5%) suggesting violence spread from the capital to other municipalities of greater Recife. Homicide rates tended to grow linearly in the interior, whilst there was an exponential growth in the capital and metropolitan region. A striking feature is the high rates of homicides with firearms in the three areas. CONCLUSIONS:The progression of homicides in the three areas of study shows a characteristic increase. It should be stressed that even though it is the same phenomenon - male homicides -, the generating dynamic of this process has geographical particularities between more urban and interior areas and they should be taken into account while developing local policies for supporting victims and preventing these events.

journal_name

Rev Saude Publica

journal_title

Revista de saude publica

authors

de Lima ML,de Souza ER,Ximenes R,de Albuquerque Mde F,Bitoun J,Barros MD

doi

10.1590/s0034-89102002000400012

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2002-08-01 00:00:00

pages

462-9

issue

4

eissn

0034-8910

issn

1518-8787

pii

S0034-89102002000400012

journal_volume

36

pub_type

杂志文章
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