Can the Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) predict outcomes in emergency general surgery patients with missing data elements? A nationwide analysis.

Abstract:

BACKGROUND:The Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) is an accurate mortality risk calculator for emergency general surgery (EGS). We sought to assess whether ESS can accurately predict 30-day morbidity, mortality, and requirement for postoperative Intensive Care Unit (ICU) care in patients with missing data variables. METHODS:All EGS patients with one or more missing ESS variables in the 2007-2015 ACS-NSQIP database were included. ESS was calculated assuming that a missing variable is normal (i.e. no additional ESS points). The correlation between ESS and morbidity, mortality, and postoperative ICU level of care was assessed using the c-statistics methodology. RESULTS:Out of a total of 4,456,809 patients, 359,849 were EGS, and of those 256,278 (71.2%) patients had at least one ESS variable missing. ESS correlated extremely well with mortality (c-statistic = 0.94) and postoperative requirement of ICU care (c-statistic = 0.91) and well with morbidity (c-statistic = 0.77). CONCLUSION:ESS performs well in predicting outcomes in EGS patients even when one or more data elements are missing and remains a useful bedside tool for counseling EGS patients and for benchmarking the quality of EGS care.

journal_name

Am J Surg

authors

Naar L,El Hechi M,Kokoroskos N,Parks J,Fawley J,Mendoza AE,Saillant N,Velmahos GC,Kaafarani HMA

doi

10.1016/j.amjsurg.2020.02.034

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2020-12-01 00:00:00

pages

1613-1622

issue

6

eissn

0002-9610

issn

1879-1883

pii

S0002-9610(20)30113-6

journal_volume

220

pub_type

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