Pacific Decadal and El Niño oscillations shape survival of a seabird.

Abstract:

:Understanding and modeling population change is urgently needed to predict effects of climate change on biodiversity. High trophic-level organisms are influenced by fluctuations of prey quality and abundance, which themselves may depend on climate oscillations. Modeling effects of such fluctuations is challenging because prey populations may vary with multiple climate oscillations occurring at different time scales. The analysis of a 28-yr time series of capture-recapture data of a tropical seabird, the Nazca Booby (Sula granti), in the Galápagos, Ecuador, allowed us to test for demographic effects of two major ocean oscillations occurring at distinct time-scales: the inter-annual El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and inter-decadal oscillations. As expected for a tropical seabird, survival of fledgling birds was highly affected by extreme ENSO events; by contrast, neither recruitment nor breeding participation were affected by either ENSO or decadal oscillations. More interesting, adult survival, a demographic trait that canalizes response to environmental variations, was unaffected by inter-annual ENSO oscillations yet was shaped by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and small pelagic fish regime. Adult survival decreased during oceanic conditions associated with higher breeding success, an association probably mediated in this species by costs of reproduction that reduce survival when breeding attempts end later. To our knowledge, this is the first study suggesting that survival of a vertebrate can be vulnerable to a natural multidecadal oscillation.

journal_name

Ecology

journal_title

Ecology

authors

Champagnon J,Lebreton JD,Drummond H,Anderson DJ

doi

10.1002/ecy.2179

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2018-05-01 00:00:00

pages

1063-1072

issue

5

eissn

0012-9658

issn

1939-9170

journal_volume

99

pub_type

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