Oil spill forecast assessment using Fractions Skill Score.

Abstract:

:In the event of an oil spill, emergency responders must quickly deploy cleanup and protection equipment using guidance provided by a forecast trajectory. Forecasting the location of the surface oil over time is standard practice; however, current performance metrics used for assessing the quality of the spill forecast lack both an appropriate numerical model accuracy score and specification of the expected spatial resolution limit for useful forecast information. This paper adapts the Fractions Skill Score method, commonly used in weather forecasting, to oil forecasting. A subset of satellite images and trajectory forecasts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill are used as an example of the method.

journal_name

Mar Pollut Bull

authors

Simecek-Beatty D,Lehr WJ

doi

10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112041

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2021-01-28 00:00:00

pages

112041

eissn

0025-326X

issn

1879-3363

pii

S0025-326X(21)00075-8

journal_volume

164

pub_type

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