当前位置： SCI文献检索 > JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RADIOACTIVITY期刊下所有文献 > Ensemble-based simultaneous emission estimates and improved forecast of radioactive pollution from nuclear power plant accidents: application to ETEX tracer experiment.

Ensemble-based simultaneous emission estimates and improved forecast of radioactive pollution from nuclear power plant accidents: application to ETEX tracer experiment.

Abstract：

:The accidental release of radioactive materials from nuclear power plant leads to radioactive pollution. We apply an augmented ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with a chemical transport model to jointly estimate the emissions of Perfluoromethylcyclohexane (PMCH), a tracer substitute for radionuclides, from a point source during the European Tracer Experiment, and to improve the forecast of its dispersion downwind. We perturb wind fields to account for meteorological uncertainties. We expand the state vector of PMCH concentrations through continuously adding an a priori emission rate for each succeeding assimilation cycle. We adopt a time-correlated red noise to simulate the temporal emission fluctuation. The improved EnKF system rapidly updates (and reduces) the excessively large initial first-guess emissions, thereby significantly improves subsequent forecasts (r = 0.83, p < 0.001). It retrieves 94% of the total PMCH released and substantially reduces transport error (>80% average reduction of the normalized mean square error).

journal_name

J Environ Radioact

journal_title

Journal of environmental radioactivity

authors

Zhang XL,Li QB,Su GF,Yuan MQ

doi

10.1016/j.jenvrad.2015.01.013

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2015-04-01 00:00:00

pages

78-86

eissn

0265-931X

issn

1879-1700

pii

S0265-931X(15)00015-6

journal_volume

142

pub_type

杂志文章

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