Abstract:
:This paper evaluates the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating annual and decadal temperature in the Mekong River Basin from 1950 to 2005. By use of Bayesian multi-model averaging method, the future projection of temperature variation under different scenarios are also analyzed. The results show, the performances of climate model are more accurate in space than time, the model can catch the warming characteristics in the Mekong river Basin, but the accuracy of simulation is not good enough. Bayesian multi-model averaging method can improve the annual and decadal temperature simulation when compared to a single result. The projected temperature in Mekong River will increase by 0.88 °C/100 year, 2.15 °C/100 year and 4.96 °C/100 year for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, over the twenty-first century. The findings will be beneficial for local people and policy-maker to formulate regional strategies against the potential menaces of warming scenarios.
journal_name
Environ Monit Assessjournal_title
Environmental monitoring and assessmentauthors
Huang Y,Wang F,Li Y,Cai Tdoi
10.1007/s10661-014-3944-xsubject
Has Abstractpub_date
2014-11-01 00:00:00pages
7513-23issue
11eissn
0167-6369issn
1573-2959journal_volume
186pub_type
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