Abstract:
:Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.
journal_name
Ecologyjournal_title
Ecologyauthors
Doak DF,Estes JA,Halpern BS,Jacob U,Lindberg DR,Lovvorn J,Monson DH,Tinker MT,Williams TM,Wootton JT,Carroll I,Emmerson M,Micheli F,Novak Mdoi
10.1890/07-0965.1subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2008-04-01 00:00:00pages
952-61issue
4eissn
0012-9658issn
1939-9170journal_volume
89pub_type
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