Abstract:
:Despite strong vetting for disease activity, only 10% of candidate new molecular entities in early stage clinical trials are eventually approved. Analyzing historical pipeline data, Nelson et al. 2015 (Nat. Genet.) concluded pipeline drug targets with human genetic evidence of disease association are twice as likely to lead to approved drugs. Taking advantage of recent clinical development advances and rapid growth in GWAS datasets, we extend the original work using updated data, test whether genetic evidence predicts future successes and introduce statistical models adjusting for target and indication-level properties. Our work confirms drugs with genetically supported targets were more likely to be successful in Phases II and III. When causal genes are clear (Mendelian traits and GWAS associations linked to coding variants), we find the use of human genetic evidence increases approval by greater than two-fold, and, for Mendelian associations, the positive association holds prospectively. Our findings suggest investments into genomics and genetics are likely to be beneficial to companies deploying this strategy.
journal_name
PLoS Genetjournal_title
PLoS geneticsauthors
King EA,Davis JW,Degner JFdoi
10.1371/journal.pgen.1008489subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2019-12-12 00:00:00pages
e1008489issue
12eissn
1553-7390issn
1553-7404pii
PGENETICS-D-19-00614journal_volume
15pub_type
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