Temporal analysis of the relationship between dengue and meteorological variables in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2001-2009.

Abstract:

:Dengue, a reemerging disease, is one of the most important viral diseases transmitted by mosquitoes. Climate is considered an important factor in the temporal and spatial distribution of vector-transmitted diseases. This study examined the effect of seasonal factors and the relationship between climatic variables and dengue risk in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 2001 to 2009. Generalized linear models were used, with Poisson and negative binomial distributions. The best fitted model was the one with "minimum temperature" and "precipitation", both lagged by one month, controlled for "year". In that model, a 1°C increase in a month's minimum temperature led to a 45% increase in dengue cases in the following month, while a 10-millimeter rise in precipitation led to a 6% increase in dengue cases in the following month. Dengue transmission involves many factors: although still not fully understood, climate is a critical factor, since it facilitates analysis of the risk of epidemics.

journal_name

Cad Saude Publica

authors

Gomes AF,Nobre AA,Cruz OG

doi

10.1590/s0102-311x2012001100018

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2012-11-01 00:00:00

pages

2189-97

issue

11

eissn

0102-311X

issn

1678-4464

pii

S0102-311X2012001100018

journal_volume

28

pub_type

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