Abstract:
:We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible methodological uncertainties. Results suggest that 37 species would face a range reduction by 2100 (16 of these by more than 50%); however, the median range size variation is -13 per cent (from -97 to +980%) under a full dispersal hypothesis. Range centroids were predicted to shift by 500+/-373 km. Predicted changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa.
journal_name
Biol Lettjournal_title
Biology lettersauthors
Barbet-Massin M,Walther BA,Thuiller W,Rahbek C,Jiguet Fdoi
10.1098/rsbl.2008.0715subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2009-04-23 00:00:00pages
248-51issue
2eissn
1744-9561issn
1744-957Xpii
rsbl.2008.0715journal_volume
5pub_type
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