Abstract：
:Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981-2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAFheat) and cold (PAFcold), by combining observed temperature-mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI'14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%-7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%-2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050-accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend-show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments.
journal_name
Int J Environ Res Public Healthauthors
Huynen MM,Martens Pdoi
10.3390/ijerph121013295subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2015-10-23 00:00:00pages
13295-320issue
10eissn
1661-7827issn
1660-4601pii
ijerph121013295journal_volume
12pub_type
杂志文章abstract：:The safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics and efficacy of most drugs used in pediatrics have not been studied in different age groups and are administered "off-label use". Clinical pediatric drug trials require specific and stringent compliance with laws, regulations, guidelines, and patient/parent/public involvement...
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pub_type： 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
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