Effects of social-distancing on infectious disease dynamics: an evolutionary game theory and economic perspective.

Abstract:

:We propose two models inspired by the COVID-19 pandemic: a coupled disease-human behaviour (or disease-game theoretic), and a coupled disease-human behaviour-economic model, both of which account for the impact of social-distancing on disease control and economic growth. The models exhibit rich dynamical behaviour including multistable equilibria, a backward bifurcation, and sustained bounded periodic oscillations. Analyses of the first model suggests that the disease can be eliminated if everybody practices full social-distancing, but the most likely outcome is some level of disease coupled with some level of social-distancing. The same outcome is observed with the second model when the economy is weaker than the social norms to follow health directives. However, if the economy is stronger, it can support some level of social-distancing that can lead to disease elimination.

journal_name

J Biol Dyn

authors

Martcheva M,Tuncer N,Ngonghala CN

doi

10.1080/17513758.2021.1946177

keywords:

["34K20","49K20","92B05","COVID-19","SARS-CoV-2","economic modelling","epidemic modelling","game theory"]

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2021-12-01 00:00:00

pages

342-366

issue

1

eissn

1751-3758

issn

1751-3766

journal_volume

15

pub_type

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