Epidemic features affecting the performance of outbreak detection algorithms.


BACKGROUND:Outbreak detection algorithms play an important role in effective automated surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed to improve the performance of outbreak detection, few published studies have examined how epidemic features of infectious disease impact on the detection performance of algorithms. This study compared the performance of three outbreak detection algorithms stratified by epidemic features of infectious disease and examined the relationship between epidemic features and performance of outbreak detection algorithms. METHODS:Exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), cumulative sum (CUSUM) and moving percentile method (MPM) algorithms were applied. We inserted simulated outbreaks into notifiable infectious disease data in China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS), and compared the performance of the three algorithms with optimized parameters at a fixed false alarm rate of 5% classified by epidemic features of infectious disease. Multiple linear regression was adopted to analyse the relationship of the algorithms' sensitivity and timeliness with the epidemic features of infectious diseases. RESULTS:The MPM had better detection performance than EWMA and CUSUM through all simulated outbreaks, with or without stratification by epidemic features (incubation period, baseline counts and outbreak magnitude). The epidemic features were associated with both sensitivity and timeliness. Compared with long incubation, short incubation had lower probability (β* = -0.13, P < 0.001) but needed shorter time to detect outbreaks (β* = -0.57, P < 0.001). Lower baseline counts were associated with higher probability (β* = -0.20, P < 0.001) and longer time (β* = 0.14, P < 0.001). The larger outbreak magnitude was correlated with higher probability (β* = 0.55, P < 0.001) and shorter time (β* = -0.23, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS:The results of this study suggest that the MPM is a prior algorithm for outbreak detection and differences of epidemic features in detection performance should be considered in automatic surveillance practice.


BMC Public Health


BMC public health


Kuang J,Yang WZ,Zhou DL,Li ZJ,Lan YJ




Has Abstract


2012-06-08 00:00:00










  • Risk-adjusted cesarean section rates for the assessment of physician performance in Taiwan: a population-based study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Over the past decade, about one-third of all births nationwide in Taiwan were delivered by cesarean section (CS). Previous studies in the US and Europe have documented the need for risk adjustment for fairer comparisons among providers. In this study, we set out to determine the impact that adjustment for pa...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Tang CH,Wang HI,Hsu CS,Su HW,Chen MJ,Lin HC

    更新日期:2006-10-09 00:00:00

  • Herpes zoster-associated mortality in Europe: a systematic review.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Reactivation of latent varicella zoster virus, partly due to age-related immunosenescence and immunosuppressive conditions, results in herpes zoster (HZ) and its associated complications. The management of the most important complication, post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN), is challenging, particularly in the eld...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 历史文章,杂志文章,评审


    authors: Bricout H,Haugh M,Olatunde O,Prieto RG

    更新日期:2015-05-05 00:00:00

  • Contribution of parental and school personnel smoking to health risk behaviours among Finnish adolescents.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:This study compared parental smoking with school personnel smoking in relation to adolescents' smoking behaviours, alcohol use, and illicit drug use. METHODS:A cross-sectional survey for 24,379 adolescents was linked to a survey for 1946 school employees in 136 Finnish schools in 2004-2005. Surveys included...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Virtanen M,Pietikäinen M,Kivimäki M,Luopa P,Jokela J,Elovainio M,Vahtera J

    更新日期:2009-10-09 00:00:00

  • Experiences of positive encounters with healthcare professionals among women on long-term sickness absence due to breast cancer or due to other diagnoses: a nationwide survey.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Experiences of encounters with professionals have been shown to influence return to work (RTW) among sickness absentees in general. The aim was to gain knowledge on experiences of encounters with healthcare professionals and the ability to RTW among women on long-term sickness absence (SA) due to breast canc...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Söderman M,Wennman-Larsen A,Alexanderson K,Friberg E

    更新日期:2019-03-29 00:00:00

  • Quantifying the need for enhanced case management for TB patients as part of TB cohort audit in the North West of England: a descriptive study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Patients with TB have diverse and often challenging clinical and social needs that may hamper successful treatment outcomes. Understanding the need for additional support during treatment (enhanced case management, or ECM) is important for workforce capacity planning. North West England TB Cohort Audit (TBCA...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Tucker A,Mithoo J,Cleary P,Woodhead M,MacPherson P,Wingfield T,Davies S,Wake C,McMaster P,Bertel Squire S

    更新日期:2017-11-15 00:00:00

  • Clinical governance and research ethics as barriers to UK low-risk population-based health research?

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Since the Helsinki Declaration was introduced in 1964 as a code of practice for clinical research, it has generally been agreed that research governance is also needed in the field of public health and health promotion research. Recently, a range of factors led to the development of more stringent bureaucrat...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: van Teijlingen ER,Douglas F,Torrance N

    更新日期:2008-11-28 00:00:00

  • Macrofilaricides and onchocerciasis control, mathematical modelling of the prospects for elimination.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:In most endemic parts of the world, onchocerciasis (river blindness) control relies, or will soon rely, exclusively on mass treatment with the microfilaricide ivermectin. Worldwide eradication of the parasite by means of this drug is unlikely. Macrofilaricidal drugs are currently being developed for human us...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Alley WS,van Oortmarssen GJ,Boatin BA,Nagelkerke NJ,Plaisier AP,Remme JH,Lazdins J,Borsboom GJ,Habbema JD

    更新日期:2001-01-01 00:00:00

  • Health-related quality of life in diabetic people with different vascular risk.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The number of papers on the health related quality of life of patients with DM has grown in recent years but fewer studies have drawn comparisons between diabetic persons and the general population considering different risk groups. The aim of this study is to examine health related quality of life (HRQOL) i...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Oliva J,Fernández-Bolaños A,Hidalgo A

    更新日期:2012-09-20 00:00:00

  • The epidemiology of fatal cyclist crashes over a 14-year period in Alberta, Canada.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Cycling is a popular recreational activity and a common transportation option; however, cycling-related injuries can be fatal. There are few studies of cycling fatalities in Canada and none in a region as sparsely populated as Alberta. METHODS:A chart review was conducted of cyclists involved in fatal crash...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Gaudet L,Romanow NT,Nettel-Aguirre A,Voaklander D,Hagel BE,Rowe BH

    更新日期:2015-11-17 00:00:00

  • Invasively-treated incidence of lower extremity peripheral arterial disease and associated factors in Taiwan: 2000-2011 nationwide hospitalized data analysis.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Lower extremity (LE) peripheral artery disease (PAD), which is associated with a reduced quality of life and increased mortality from atherosclerotic cardio-/cerebro-vascular occlusion, is a significant public health problem, especial for an aging society such as that of Taiwan. METHODS:Specific datasets of...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Chang NT,Chan CL,Lu YT,Hsu JC,Hsu YN,Chu D,Yang NP

    更新日期:2013-12-01 00:00:00

  • Risk factors associated with knife-crime in United Kingdom among young people aged 10-24 years: a systematic review.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Since 2013, the number of violent crimes and offences by sharp instruments have increased continually, following a previous decrease, with majority of cases occurring among young people and in London. There is limited understanding surrounding the drivers influencing this change in trends, with mostly Americ...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Haylock S,Boshari T,Alexander EC,Kumar A,Manikam L,Pinder R

    更新日期:2020-09-25 00:00:00

  • Self-harm among asylum seekers in Australian onshore immigration detention: how incidence rates vary by held detention type.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Detained asylum seekers are at increased risk of self-harm, and the type of detention in which they are held may further exacerbate this risk. In Australia, there are four types of closed (or held) immigration detention for people seeking asylum, with varying levels of security and supports: Immigration Dete...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Hedrick K,Armstrong G,Coffey G,Borschmann R

    更新日期:2020-04-30 00:00:00

  • Dietary patterns associated with body mass index (BMI) and lifestyle in Mexican adolescents.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The objetive in this study is to determine the relationship between dietary patterns, BMI, type 2 diabetes mellitus family history (T2DMFH) and some lifestyle variables such as smoking and skipping breakfast in a Mexican adolescent population. METHODS:Cross-sectional, observational, analytical study.Subjetc...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Gutiérrez-Pliego LE,Camarillo-Romero Edel S,Montenegro-Morales LP,Garduño-García Jde J

    更新日期:2016-08-22 00:00:00

  • Relationships between County Health Rankings and child overweight and obesity prevalence: a serial cross-sectional analysis.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The County Health Rankings (CHR) system provides health rankings for U.S. counties. These factors may have utility for evaluating and predicting health outcomes. This study examined the association between CHR factors and the prevalence of child overweight/obesity (OWOB) in the state of Pennsylvania over 3 y...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Peyer K,Welk GJ,Bailey-Davis L,Chen S

    更新日期:2016-05-14 00:00:00

  • Using routinely collected hospital data for child maltreatment surveillance: issues, methods and patterns.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:International data on child maltreatment are largely derived from child protection agencies, and predominantly report only substantiated cases of child maltreatment. This approach underestimates the incidence of maltreatment and makes inter-jurisdictional comparisons difficult. There has been a growing recog...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: McKenzie K,Scott DA

    更新日期:2011-01-05 00:00:00

  • Investigating the association between occupational exposure to asbestos and ovarian carcinoma: results from a pilot study in Germany.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The aim of this pilot study was to assess the feasibility of a large-scale epidemiologic investigation elucidating the quantitative association between occupational exposure to asbestos and ovarian cancer in former German asbestos workers. METHODS:Between December 2017 and May 2018, a random sample of one t...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Rajput Z,Hering KG,Kraus T,Tannapfel A,Sonnenschein G,Centmayer A,Radon K,Nowak D,Weinmann T

    更新日期:2019-10-22 00:00:00

  • Progress and challenges in implementing HIV care and treatment policies in Latin America following the treatment 2.0 initiative.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The Pan American Health Organization provides technical cooperation to countries in Latin America and the Caribbean for the scale-up of HIV care and treatment based on the Treatment 2.0 initiative. Fourteen Joint Review Missions (JRMs) were conducted between March 2012 and October 2014. Evaluating the degree...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Perez F,Gomez B,Ravasi G,Ghidinelli M

    更新日期:2015-12-19 00:00:00

  • The role of religious leaders in promoting acceptance of vaccination within a minority group: a qualitative study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Although childhood vaccination programs have been very successful, vaccination coverage in minority groups may be considerably lower than in the general population. In order to increase vaccination coverage in such minority groups involvement of faith-based organizations and religious leaders has been advoca...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Ruijs WL,Hautvast JL,Kerrar S,van der Velden K,Hulscher ME

    更新日期:2013-05-28 00:00:00

  • Effectiveness of hygienic-dietary recommendations as enhancers of antidepressant treatment in patients with depression: study protocol of a randomized controlled trial.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:In recent years some studies have been published supporting the efficacy of light exposure, physical activity, sleep control and a Mediterranean diet pattern on the improvement or prevention of depression. However, to our knowledge, there have been no studies using all these measures together as an adjuvant ...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验


    authors: Garcia-Toro M,Ibarra O,Gili M,Salva J,Monzón S,Vives M,Serrano MJ,Garcia-Campayo J,Roca M

    更新日期:2010-07-09 00:00:00

  • Internal migration and the health of the returned population: a nationally representative study of China.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:China had 236 million internal migrants in 2012 and the majority of them migrated from rural to urban areas. The research based on medical and epidemical records found that the migrants had worse health than the urban residents, but the household and working place investigations reported better health status...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Zhang L,Liu S,Zhang G,Wu S

    更新日期:2015-07-28 00:00:00

  • Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in small areas of 33 Spanish cities.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:In Spain, several ecological studies have analyzed trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from all causes in urban areas over time. However, the results of these studies are quite heterogeneous finding, in general, that inequalities decreased, or remained stable. Therefore, the objectives of this ...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Marí-Dell'Olmo M,Gotsens M,Palència L,Rodríguez-Sanz M,Martinez-Beneito MA,Ballesta M,Calvo M,Cirera L,Daponte A,Domínguez-Berjón F,Gandarillas A,Goñi NI,Martos C,Moreno-Iribas C,Nolasco A,Salmerón D,Taracido M,Borrell

    更新日期:2016-07-29 00:00:00

  • Evaluating the performance of interpreting Verbal Autopsy 3.2 model for establishing pulmonary tuberculosis as a cause of death in Ethiopia: a population-based cross-sectional study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:In resource- poor settings, verbal autopsy data are often reviewed by physicians in order to assign the probable cause of death. But in addition to being time and energy consuming, the method is liable to produce inconsistent results. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of the InterVA 3.2 mo...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Tadesse S,Tadesse T

    更新日期:2012-11-29 00:00:00

  • Effectiveness of the population health and environment approach in improving family planning outcomes in the Gurage, Zone South Ethiopia.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Family planning is a strategy of balancing population growth with economic development for sustainable use of natural resources. A high population growth induces increased demand for resources and the rate at which these resources are exploited. Population, health and environment are connected inextricably. ...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Sinaga M,Mohammed A,Teklu N,Stelljes K,Belachew T

    更新日期:2015-11-13 00:00:00

  • Magnitude and risk factors of non-communicable diseases among people living with HIV in Tanzania: a cross sectional study from Mbeya and Dar es Salaam regions.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:HIV and Non communicable diseases (NCDs) are major problem of public health importance in developing countries. This study was conducted to explore and establish information on the magnitude, distribution of NCDs risk factors among people living with HIV (PLWHIV) which is scarce in Tanzania. METHOD:A cross ...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Kagaruki GB,Mayige MT,Ngadaya ES,Kimaro GD,Kalinga AK,Kilale AM,Kahwa AM,Materu GS,Mfinanga SG

    更新日期:2014-09-02 00:00:00

  • Food items contributing most to variation in antioxidant intake; a cross-sectional study among Norwegian women.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Fruit and vegetable intake has been found to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease, certain types of cancer and diabetes mellitus. It is possible that antioxidants play a large part in this protective effect. However, which foods account for the variation in antioxidant intake in a population is not very...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Qureshi SA,Lund AC,Veierød MB,Carlsen MH,Blomhoff R,Andersen LF,Ursin G

    更新日期:2014-01-16 00:00:00

  • Changes in family income status and the development of overweight and obesity from 2 to 15 years: a longitudinal study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:An emerging body of research suggests the trajectory of a family's income affects children's health and development more profoundly than the often-measured income at a single time point. The purpose of this study was to examine the associations between changes in family income status, early-life risk factors...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Demment MM,Haas JD,Olson CM

    更新日期:2014-05-01 00:00:00

  • Perceived barriers to the practice of preventive measures for COVID-19 pandemic among health professionals in public health facilities of the Gamo zone, southern Ethiopia: a phenomenological study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Novel coronavirus is a global pandemic and killed many individuals, including health care professionals. It caused stress on the health care system of all countries. Presently, studies are emerging regarding the COVID-19 pandemic in different aspects. However, a few have explored barriers that affecting the ...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Mersha A,Shibiru S,Girma M,Ayele G,Bante A,Kassa M,Abebe S,Shewangizaw M

    更新日期:2021-01-22 00:00:00

  • Enhanced maternal and child health nurse care for women experiencing intimate partner/family violence: protocol for MOVE, a cluster randomised trial of screening and referral in primary health care.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Intimate partner violence (IPV) can result in significant harm to women and families and is especially prevalent when women are pregnant or recent mothers. Maternal and child health nurses (MCHN) in Victoria, Australia are community-based nurse/midwives who see over 95% of all mothers with newborns. MCHN are...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验


    authors: Taft AJ,Small R,Humphreys C,Hegarty K,Walter R,Adams C,Agius P

    更新日期:2012-09-20 00:00:00

  • Health literacy levels of British adults: a cross-sectional survey using two domains of the Health Literacy Questionnaire (HLQ).

    abstract:BACKGROUND:A person's health literacy determines whether they are able to make appropriate health decisions and are able to follow treatment instructions. This is important because low health literacy is associated with mortality and extra costs to the healthcare system. Our aim was to describe the health literacy leve...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Simpson RM,Knowles E,O'Cathain A

    更新日期:2020-11-30 00:00:00

  • Characterizing hospital workers' willingness to report to duty in an influenza pandemic through threat- and efficacy-based assessment.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Hospital-based providers' willingness to report to work during an influenza pandemic is a critical yet under-studied phenomenon. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM) has been shown to be useful for understanding adaptive behavior of public health workers to an unknown risk, and thus offers a framew...

    journal_title:BMC public health

    pub_type: 杂志文章


    authors: Balicer RD,Barnett DJ,Thompson CB,Hsu EB,Catlett CL,Watson CM,Semon NL,Gwon HS,Links JM

    更新日期:2010-07-26 00:00:00