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Forecasting fully vaccinated people against COVID-19 and examining future vaccination rate for herd immunity in the US, Asia, Europe, Africa, South America, and the World.

Abstract：

:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-2019) has spread rapidly all over the world and it is known that the most effective way to eliminate the disease is vaccination. Although the traditional vaccine development process is quite long, more than ten COVID-19 vaccines have been approved for use in about a year. The COVID-19 vaccines that have been administered are highly effective enough, but achieving herd immunity is required to end the pandemic. The motivation of this study is to contribute to review the countries' vaccine policies and adjusting the manufacturing plans of the vaccine companies. In this study, the total number of people fully vaccinated against COVID-19 was forecasted in the US, Asia, Europe, Africa, South America, and the World with the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, which is a new approach in vaccination studies. Additionally, for herd immunity, the percentage of fully vaccinated people in these regions at the beginning of 2021 summer was determined. ARIMA results show that in the US, Asia, Europe, Africa, South America, and the World will reach 139 million, 109 million, 127 million, 8 million, 38 million, and 441 million people will be fully vaccinated on 1 June 2021, respectively. According to these results, 41.8% of the US, 2.3% of Asia, 17% of Europe, 0.6% of Africa, 8.8% of South America, and 5.6% of the World population will be fully vaccinated people against the COVID-19. Results show that countries are far from the herd immunity threshold level desired to reach for safely slow or stop the COVID-19 epidemic.

journal_name

Appl Soft Comput

journal_title

Applied soft computing

authors

Cihan P

doi

10.1016/j.asoc.2021.107708

keywords:

["ARIMA","COVID-19","Forecasting","Herd immunity","SARS-CoV-2","Vaccine"]

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2021-11-01 00:00:00

pages

107708

eissn

1568-4946

issn

1872-9681

pii

S1568-4946(21)00629-3

journal_volume

111

pub_type

杂志文章

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