Abstract：
OBJECTIVE:To estimate the effects of age, period and birth cohort on observed trends, and to provide short- to medium-term projections of population BMI in New Zealand. METHODS:Data were obtained from New Zealand national health surveys covering the period 1997 to 2015 (n=76,294 individuals). A Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort (HAPC) model and an Age-Period model with interaction terms were specified for population groups defined by ethnicity and sex. Observed trends were extrapolated to estimate group-specific BMI projections for the period 2015-2038; these were weighted by projected population sizes to calculate population-wide BMI projections. RESULTS:Population mean BMI increased from 26.4 kg/m2 (95%CI 26.2-26.5) in 1997 to 28.3 kg/m2 (95%CI 28.2-28.5) in 2015. Both models identified substantial, approximately linear, period trends behind this increase, with no significant cohort effects. Mean BMI was projected to reach 30.6 kg/m2 (95%CI 29.4-31.7; HAPC model) to 30.8 kg/m2 (95%CI 30.2-31.4; Age-Period model) by 2038. CONCLUSIONS:BMI continues to increase in New Zealand. On current trends, population mean BMI will exceed 30 kg/m2 - the clinical cut-off for obesity - by the early 2030s. Implications for public health: Unless prevented by comprehensive public health policy changes, increasing population obesity is likely to result in unfavourable economic and health impacts.
journal_name
Aust N Z J Public Healthjournal_title
Australian and New Zealand journal of public healthauthors
Wilson R,Abbott JHdoi
10.1111/1753-6405.12804subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2018-08-01 00:00:00pages
396-402issue
4eissn
1326-0200issn
1753-6405journal_volume
42pub_type
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journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/1753-6405.12501
更新日期：2016-02-01 00:00:00
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journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/j.1467-842x.2005.tb00203.x
更新日期：2005-08-01 00:00:00
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journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/j.1753-6405.2007.00114.x
更新日期：2007-10-01 00:00:00
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journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/1753-6405.12945
更新日期：2019-12-01 00:00:00
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journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/j.1753-6405.2008.00162.x
更新日期：2008-02-01 00:00:00
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journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
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doi：10.1111/j.1467-842x.2000.tb00131.x
更新日期：2000-04-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:To cross-sectionally examine heavy episodic drinking (HED) and pre-loading with alcohol among young Australian women in relation to the alcohol-induced adverse outcomes of memory loss, vomiting and injury. METHODS:A total of 7,800 participants, aged 20-25 years, from the 1989-95 cohort of the Australian Long...
journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/1753-6405.13018
更新日期：2020-10-01 00:00:00
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pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/j.1753-6405.2011.00779.x
更新日期：2011-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:To assess the cost-effectiveness of adding school based Mantoux screening programs to the New South Wales current TB prevention strategy. METHOD:A decision analysis model compared the costs and consequences of screening strategies against the current no-screen strategy. Costs associated with screening and wi...
journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/j.1467-842x.2000.tb01564.x
更新日期：2000-06-01 00:00:00
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journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/1753-6405.12029
更新日期：2013-04-01 00:00:00
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journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/j.1467-842x.1996.tb01031.x
更新日期：1996-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Previous research has yielded inconsistent results on the effects of exercise, smoking and alcohol use on cognitive impairment and dementia in old age. We analysed data from the Sydney Older Persons Study to see if these health habits were associated with cognitive functioning, dementia or Alzheimer's disease. Health ...
journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/j.1467-842x.1998.tb01449.x
更新日期：1998-08-01 00:00:00
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journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/1753-6405.12905
更新日期：2019-08-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVES:To examine access and equity to induced abortion services in Australia, including factors associated with presenting beyond nine weeks gestation. METHODS:Cross-sectional survey of 2,326 women aged 16+ years attending for an abortion at 14 Dr Marie clinics. Associations with later presentation assessed using...
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pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/1753-6405.12641
更新日期：2017-06-01 00:00:00
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journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/j.1753-6405.2007.00080.x
更新日期：2007-08-01 00:00:00
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pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/j.1467-842x.2004.tb00702.x
更新日期：2004-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:To describe Aboriginal community members' perspectives on the outcomes and origins of resilience among Aboriginal children. METHODS:Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 36 Aboriginal adults (15 health service professionals, 8 youth workers and 13 community members) at two urban and one regional Aborig...
journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/1753-6405.12681
更新日期：2017-08-01 00:00:00
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journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章,评审
doi：10.1111/j.1467-842x.1999.tb01288.x
更新日期：1999-08-01 00:00:00
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journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/j.1753-6405.2009.00411.x
更新日期：2009-08-01 00:00:00
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doi：10.1111/1753-6405.12156
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doi：10.1111/j.1467-842x.2003.tb00382.x
更新日期：2003-01-01 00:00:00
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doi：10.1111/1753-6405.12739
更新日期：2018-02-01 00:00:00
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journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/j.1467-842x.1999.tb01554.x
更新日期：1999-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVES:To assess the completeness of ACIR data for south-eastern Sydney children at 12 to < 15 months of age and to develop strategies to improve rates. METHODS:We surveyed children aged 12 to < 15 months listed as overdue on the ACIR011A report, December 2001, by contacting the last immunisation provider or the p...
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pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/j.1467-842x.2004.tb00635.x
更新日期：2004-02-01 00:00:00
abstract：AIMS:Winter air pollution in Christchurch is dominated by particulate matter from solid fuel domestic heating. The aim of the study was to explore the relationship between particulate air pollution and admissions to hospital with cardio-respiratory illnesses. METHODS:Particulate air pollution statistics (PM10) were ob...
journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/j.1467-842x.2002.tb00266.x
更新日期：2002-02-01 00:00:00
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journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/j.1467-842x.1998.tb01176.x
更新日期：1998-04-01 00:00:00
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journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/j.1467-842x.2003.tb00807.x
更新日期：2003-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：:In Australia, there is a clear relationship (r=-0.56) between the ratio of health expenditure to burden and the ratio of mortality to disability across illness groups. Those illnesses with high mortality relative to disability (e.g. cancer and cardiovascular) are associated with lower health expenditure, relative to t...
journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/j.1467-842x.2006.tb00102.x
更新日期：2006-04-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:To investigate time trends in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence disparities, and ethnic differences in risk factors, comorbidity and treatment pathways among HCC patients. METHODS:Cohorts of the NZ population (1981-2004) were created and probabilistically linked to cancer registry records to investiga...
journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/1753-6405.12108
更新日期：2013-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVES:To determine age group- and cause-of-death-specific contributions to area socioeconomic status (SES), sex and remoteness life expectancy inequalities. METHODS:Mortality and estimated residential population data from New South Wales, Australia, over 2010-2012 was used to calculate life expectancy. Inequaliti...
journal_title：Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1111/1753-6405.12753
更新日期：2018-04-01 00:00:00
