Abstract：
:Although the effect of time to death (TTD) on health care expenditures (HCE) has been investigated using individual level data, the most profound implications of TTD have been for the forecasting of macro-level HCE. Here we estimate the TTD model using macro-level data from the Netherlands consisting of mortality rates and age- and gender-specific per capita health expenditures for the years 1981-2007. Forecasts for the years 2008-2020 of this macro-level TTD model were compared to forecasts that excluded TTD. Results revealed that the effect of TTD on HCE in our macro model was similar to those found in micro-econometric studies. As the inclusion of TTD pushed growth rate estimates from unidentified causes upwards, however, the two models' forecasts of HCE for the 2008-2020 were similar. We argue that including TTD, if modeled correctly, does not lower forecasts of HCE.
journal_name
J Health Econjournal_title
Journal of health economicsauthors
van Baal PH,Wong Adoi
10.1016/j.jhealeco.2012.08.003subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2012-12-01 00:00:00pages
876-87issue
6eissn
0167-6296issn
1879-1646pii
S0167-6296(12)00112-9journal_volume
31pub_type
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