Abstract：
:This study compared three forecasting models based on the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) of their accuracy in forecasting air pollution in a traffic tunnel: the Grey model (GM), the combination model used four sample point and five sample point prediction with GM (1,1)(GM(1,1)(4 + 5)), and the modified grey model (MGM). An MGM was combined using the four points of the original sequence using the original grey prediction GM (1,1) for short-term forecasting. The proposed method cannot only enhance the prediction accuracy of the original grey model, but can also solve the jump data forecasting problem something for which the original grey model is inappropriate. The MAPE was applied to the models, and the MGM found the proposed method to be simple and efficient. The MAPE of MGM, calculated over 3 h of forecasts, were as follows: 10.12 (Upwind), 10.07 (Middle) and 7.68 (Downwind) for CO; 10.79 (Upwind), 6.05 (Middle) and 5.98 (Downwind) for NOx, and 11.67 (Upwind), 7.32 (Middle) and 4.56 (Downwind) for NMHC. The MGM model results reveal that the combined forecasts can significantly decrease the overall forecasting error. Results of this demonstrate that MGM can accurately forecast air pollution in the Kaohsiung Chung-Cheng Tunnel.
journal_name
Environ Monit Assessjournal_title
Environmental monitoring and assessmentauthors
Lee CC,Wan TJ,Kuo CY,Chung CYdoi
10.1007/s10661-006-9539-4subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2007-09-01 00:00:00pages
351-64issue
1-3eissn
0167-6369issn
1573-2959journal_volume
132pub_type
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journal_title：Environmental monitoring and assessment
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