Estimating with confidence the risk of rare adverse events, including those with observed rates of zero.

Abstract:

:Omission of a confidence interval (CI) associated with the risk of a serious complication can lead to inaccurate interpretation of risk data. The calculation of a CI for a risk or a single proportion typically uses the familiar Gaussian (normal) approximation. However, when the risk is small, "exact" methods or other special techniques should be used to avoid overshooting (risks that include values outside of [0,1]) and zero width interval degeneration. Computer programs and simple equations are available to construct CIs reasonably accurately. In the special case in which the complication has not occurred, the risk estimated with 95% confidence is no worse than 3/n, where n is the number of trials.

journal_name

Reg Anesth Pain Med

authors

Ho AM,Dion PW,Karmakar MK,Lee A

doi

10.1053/rapm.2002.30708

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2002-03-01 00:00:00

pages

207-10

issue

2

eissn

1098-7339

issn

1532-8651

pii

S1098733902599867

journal_volume

27

pub_type

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