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Forecasting the consequences of accidental releases of radionuclides in the atmosphere from ensemble dispersion modelling.

Abstract：

:The RTMOD system is presented as a tool for the intercomparison of long-range dispersion models as well as a system for support of decision making. RTMOD is an internet-based procedure that collects the results of more than 20 models used around the world to predict the transport and deposition of radioactive releases in the atmosphere. It allows the real-time acquisition of model results and their intercomparison. Taking advantage of the availability of several model results, the system can also be used as a tool to support decision making in case of emergency. The new concept of ensemble dispersion modelling is introduced which is the basis for the decision-making application of RTMOD. New statistical parameters are presented that allow gathering the results of several models to produce a single dispersion forecast. The devised parameters are presented and tested on the results of RTMOD exercises.

journal_name

J Environ Radioact

journal_title

Journal of environmental radioactivity

authors

Galmarini S,Bianconi R,Bellasio R,Graziani G

doi

10.1016/s0265-931x(01)00017-0

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2001-01-01 00:00:00

pages

203-19

issue

3

eissn

0265-931X

issn

1879-1700

pii

S0265-931X(01)00017-0

journal_volume

57

pub_type

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