Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change.

Abstract:

:Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

journal_name

Environ Manage

journal_title

Environmental management

authors

Pröbstl-Haider U,Mostegl NM,Kelemen-Finan J,Haider W,Formayer H,Kantelhardt J,Moser T,Kapfer M,Trenholm R

doi

10.1007/s00267-016-0720-4

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2016-09-01 00:00:00

pages

446-64

issue

3

eissn

0364-152X

issn

1432-1009

pii

10.1007/s00267-016-0720-4

journal_volume

58

pub_type

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