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Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species: the case study of Barrow Island.

Abstract：

:Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.

journal_name

J Environ Manage

journal_title

Journal of environmental management

authors

Davidovitch L,Stoklosa R,Majer J,Nietrzeba A,Whittle P,Mengersen K,Ben-Haim Y

doi

10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.03.011

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2009-06-01 00:00:00

pages

2785-93

issue

8

eissn

0301-4797

issn

1095-8630

pii

S0301-4797(09)00089-9

journal_volume

90

pub_type

杂志文章

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