A systematic review and meta-analysis of dengue risk with temperature change.

Abstract:

:Dengue fever (DF) is the most serious mosquito-borne viral disease in the world and is significantly affected by temperature. Although associations between DF and temperatures have been reported repeatedly, conclusions have been inconsistent. Six databases were searched up to 23 March 2014, without language and geographical restrictions. The articles that studied the correlations between temperatures and dengue were selected, and a random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals. Of 1589 identified articles, 137 were reviewed further, with 33 satisfying inclusion criteria. The closest associations were observed between mean temperature from the included studies (23.2-27.7 °C) and DF (OR 35.0% per 1 °C; 95% CI 18.3%-51.6%) positively. Additionally, minimum (18.1-24.2 °C) (29.5% per 1 °C; 20.9%-38.1%) and maximum temperature (28.0-34.5 °C) (28.9%; 10.3%-47.5%) were also associated with increased dengue transmission. The OR of DF incidence increased steeply from 22 °C to 29 °C, suggesting an inflexion of DF risk between these lower and upper limits of DF risk. This discovery is helpful for government decision-makers focused on preventing and controlling dengue in areas with temperatures within this range.

authors

Fan J,Wei W,Bai Z,Fan C,Li S,Liu Q,Yang K

doi

10.3390/ijerph120100001

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2014-12-23 00:00:00

pages

1-15

issue

1

eissn

1661-7827

issn

1660-4601

pii

ijerph120100001

journal_volume

12

pub_type

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