Abstract：
:Faced with the global spread of COVID-19, the Hong Kong government imposed compulsory home quarantine on all overseas arrivals, while cities in mainland China and Macau adopted a more stringent centralized quarantine approach. This study evaluates the effectiveness of compulsory home quarantine as a means of pandemic control. Combining epidemiological data with traditional socioeconomic and meteorological data from over 250 cities, we employ the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to construct a counterfactual "synthetic Hong Kong". This model simulates the infection trends for a hypothetical situation in which HK adopts centralized quarantine measures, and compares them to actual infection numbers. Results suggest that home quarantine would have been less effective than centralized quarantine initially. However, the infection rate under home quarantine later converges with the counterfactual estimate under centralized quarantine (0.136% vs. 0.174%), suggesting similar efficacy in the later phase of implementation. Considering its minimal reliance on public resources, home quarantine with heightened enforcement may therefore be preferable to centralized quarantine in countries with limited public health resources. Home quarantine as a quarantine alternative balances public protection and individual freedom, while conserving resources, making it a more sustainable option for many cities.
journal_name
Sustain Cities Socjournal_title
Sustainable cities and societyauthors
Zhu P,Tan Xdoi
10.1016/j.scs.2021.103222keywords:
["COVID-19 pandemic","Compulsory home quarantine","Hong Kong","Synthetic Control Method"]subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2021-11-01 00:00:00pages
103222eissn
2210-6707issn
2210-6715pii
S2210-6707(21)00500-Xjournal_volume
74pub_type
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