Scenario analysis of the future of medicines.

Abstract:

:Planning future policy for medicines poses difficult problems. The main players in the drug business have their own views as to how the world around them functions and how the future of medicines should be shaped. In this paper we show how a scenario analysis can provide a powerful teaching device to readjust peoples' preconceptions. Scenarios are plausible, not probable or preferable, portraits of alternative futures. A series of four of alternative scenarios were constructed: "sobriety in sufficiency," "risk avoidance," "technology on demand," and "free market unfettered." Each scenario was drawn as a narrative, documented quantitatively wherever possible, that described the world as it might be if particular trends were to dominate development. The medical community and health policy markers may use scenarios to take a long term view in order to be prepared adequately for the future.

journal_name

BMJ

authors

Leufkens H,Haaijer-Ruskamp F,Bakker A,Dukes G

doi

10.1136/bmj.309.6962.1137

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

1994-10-29 00:00:00

pages

1137-40

issue

6962

eissn

0959-8138

issn

1756-1833

journal_volume

309

pub_type

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