Abstract:
OBJECTIVE:To systematically review the accuracy of physicians' clinical predictions of survival in terminally ill cancer patients. DATA SOURCES:Cochrane Library, Medline (1996-2000), Embase, Current Contents, and Cancerlit databases as well as hand searching. STUDY SELECTION:Studies were included if a physician's temporal clinical prediction of survival (CPS) and the actual survival (AS) for terminally ill cancer patients were available for statistical analysis. Study quality was assessed by using a critical appraisal tool produced by the local health authority. DATA SYNTHESIS:Raw data were pooled and analysed with regression and other multivariate techniques. RESULTS:17 published studies were identified; 12 met the inclusion criteria, and 8 were evaluable, providing 1563 individual prediction-survival dyads. CPS was generally overoptimistic (median CPS 42 days, median AS 29 days); it was correct to within one week in 25% of cases and overestimated survival by at least four weeks in 27%. The longer the CPS the greater the variability in AS. Although agreement between CPS and AS was poor (weighted kappa 0.36), the two were highly significantly associated after log transformation (Spearman rank correlation 0.60, P < 0.001). Consideration of performance status, symptoms, and use of steroids improved the accuracy of the CPS, although the additional value was small. Heterogeneity of the studies' results precluded a comprehensive meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS:Although clinicians consistently overestimate survival, their predictions are highly correlated with actual survival; the predictions have discriminatory ability even if they are miscalibrated. Clinicians caring for patients with terminal cancer need to be aware of their tendency to overestimate survival, as it may affect patients' prospects for achieving a good death. Accurate prognostication models incorporating clinical prediction of survival are needed.
journal_name
BMJjournal_title
BMJ (Clinical research ed.)authors
Glare P,Virik K,Jones M,Hudson M,Eychmuller S,Simes J,Christakis Ndoi
10.1136/bmj.327.7408.195keywords:
subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2003-07-26 00:00:00pages
195-8issue
7408eissn
0959-8138issn
1756-1833pii
327/7408/195journal_volume
327pub_type
杂志文章,meta分析,评审abstract:OBJECTIVE:To estimate the risk of breast cancer associated with diagnostic radiation in carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations. DESIGN:Retrospective cohort study (GENE-RAD-RISK). SETTING:Three nationwide studies (GENEPSO, EMBRACE, HEBON) in France, United Kingdom, and the Netherlands, PARTICIPANTS:1993 female carriers of BRC...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.e5660
更新日期:2012-09-06 00:00:00
abstract::Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a global health problem that can lead to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although HBV vaccination has reduced the prevalence Of HBV infection, the burden of disease remains high. Treatment with antiviral drugs reduces the risk of liver disease and the development of HCC, and it...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1136/bmj.h4263
更新日期:2015-10-21 00:00:00
abstract::First aid, as a profession in its own right, has a history of only 120 years. It evolved from the teachings of the Royal Humane Society and military surgeons, who saw the wisdom of training in splinting and bandaging for battlefield wounds. In 1878 two Aberdeenshire military officers, Surgeon-Major Peter Shepherd of t...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 传,历史文章,杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.309.6970.1718
更新日期:1994-12-24 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To investigate whether routinely collected data from hospital episode statistics could be used to identify the gynaecologist Rodney Ledward, who was suspended in 1966 and was the subject of the Ritchie inquiry into quality and practice within the NHS. DESIGN:A mixed scanning approach was used to identify se...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1136/bmj.38377.675440.8F
更新日期:2005-04-23 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To define the benefit of rice oral rehydration salts solution in relation to the glucose based World Health Organisation oral rehydration salts solution for treating and preventing dehydration in patients with severe dehydrating diarrhoea. DESIGN:Meta-analysis using data from 13 available randomised trials t...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
doi:10.1136/bmj.304.6822.287
更新日期:1992-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::The disease management approach to patient care seeks to coordinate resources across the healthcare delivery system. The growing interest in evidence based medicine and outcomes, and a commitment to integrated care across the primary, secondary, and community care sectors, all contribute to making disease management a...
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doi:10.1136/bmj.315.7099.50
更新日期:1997-07-05 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To assess the association between genitourinary infections in the month before conception to the end of the first trimesterand gastroschisis. DESIGN:Case-control study with self reported infections from a computer assisted telephone interview. SETTING:National birth defects prevention study, a multisite, po...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1136/bmj.39567.509074.25
更新日期:2008-06-21 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To evaluate an experimental heroin maintenance programme. DESIGN:Randomised trial. SETTING:Outpatient clinic in Geneva, Switzerland. SUBJECTS:Heroin addicts recruited from the community who were socially marginalised and in poor health and had failed in at least two previous drug treatments. INTERVENTION:...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 临床试验,杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi:10.1136/bmj.317.7150.13
更新日期:1998-07-04 00:00:00
abstract::One hundred and two patients returned structured questionnaires sent to clinics for sickle cell disease in the United Kingdom in order to gain greater insight into the patients' perception of painful crises. Most patients who suffer pain crises experience a prodromal stage that should be investigated further to find o...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.297.6646.452
更新日期:1988-08-13 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To investigate the relation between total fat intake and body weight in adults and children. DESIGN:Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and cohort studies. DATA SOURCES:Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials to June 2010. INCLUSION CR...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
doi:10.1136/bmj.e7666
更新日期:2012-12-06 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To investigate the effect of immediate feedback from a point of care test for salivary nicotine metabolites in promoting smoking cessation and reduction in tobacco use. DESIGN:Prospective, operator blinded, randomised controlled trial. SETTING:General dental practice, London. PARTICIPANTS:100 adult smokers...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 临床试验,杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi:10.1136/bmj.38621.463900.7C
更新日期:2005-10-29 00:00:00
abstract::This review summarises the literature on shift work and its relation to insufficient sleep, chronic diseases, and accidents. It is based on 38 meta-analyses and 24 systematic reviews, with additional narrative reviews and articles used for outlining possible mechanisms by which shift work may cause accidents and adver...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1136/bmj.i5210
更新日期:2016-11-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To provide a comprehensive survey of the content and quality of intervention studies relevant to the treatment of schizophrenia. DESIGN:Data were extracted from 2000 trials on the Cochrane Schizophrenia Group's register. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:Type and date of publication, country of origin, language, size o...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.317.7167.1181
更新日期:1998-10-31 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To compare the prevalence of antibody to and proviral DNA of the retrovirus HTLV-I in relatives of 11 British patients with tropical spastic paraparesis who had migrated from Jamaica before they developed symptoms, and to examine factors possibly related to transmission of HTLV-I. DESIGN:Migrant, family stud...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.300.6720.300
更新日期:1990-02-03 00:00:00
abstract::Objective To determine the attributable risk of community acquired pneumonia on incidence of heart failure throughout the age range of affected patients and severity of the infection.Design Cohort study.Setting Six hospitals and seven emergency departments in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, 2000-02.Participants 4988 adults...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.j413
更新日期:2017-02-13 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To investigate the impact of patients' preferences for the treatment of atrial fibrillation, by using individualised decision analysis combining probability and utility assessments into a decision tree. DESIGN:Observational study based on interviews with patients. SETTING:Eight general practices in Avon. P...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1136/bmj.320.7246.1380
更新日期:2000-05-20 00:00:00
abstract:STUDY QUESTION:What are the long term trends in the total (live births, fetal deaths, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly) and live birth prevalence of neural tube defects (NTD) in Europe, where many countries have issued recommendations for folic acid supplementation but a policy for mandatory folic acid f...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.h5949
更新日期:2015-11-24 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To determine whether the variation in unadjusted rates of caesarean section derived from routine data in NHS trusts in England can be explained by maternal characteristics and clinical risk factors. DESIGN:A cross sectional analysis using routinely collected hospital episode statistics was performed. A multi...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1136/bmj.c5065
更新日期:2010-10-06 00:00:00
abstract::Medical audit has its critics, who point to the large sums of NHS cash that seem to be disappearing down a medical plughole. These criticisms are recognised by medical audit advisory groups but there are many reasons why the work of these groups has not yet resulted in many publications in journals or bumped up health...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.309.6947.98
更新日期:1994-07-09 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To measure, in a service setting, the effect of magnetic resonance imaging on diagnosis, diagnostic certainty, and patient management in the neurosciences; to measure the cost per patient scanned; to estimate the marginal cost of imaging and compare this with its diagnostic impact; to measure changes in pati...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.303.6815.1435
更新日期:1991-12-07 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To determine whether the author's 20.9 lb (9.5 kg) carbon frame bicycle reduced commuting time compared with his 29.75 lb (13.5 kg) steel frame bicycle. DESIGN:Randomised trial. SETTING:Sheffield and Chesterfield, United Kingdom, between mid-January 2010 and mid-July 2010. PARTICIPANTS:One consultant in an...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi:10.1136/bmj.c6801
更新日期:2010-12-09 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To review the evidence for ethnic differences in susceptibility to adverse drug reactions (ADRs) to cardiovascular drugs. DESIGN:Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES:We searched Medline and Embase to March 2005. Reference lists of identified articles were hand searched for further relevant arti...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
doi:10.1136/bmj.38803.528113.55
更新日期:2006-05-20 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the effect of financial incentives on four clinical quality indicators common to pay for performance plans in the United Kingdom and at Kaiser Permanente in California. DESIGN:Longitudinal analysis. SETTING:35 medical facilities of Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 1997-2007. PARTICIPANTS:...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1136/bmj.c1898
更新日期:2010-05-11 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the immunogenicity and reactogenicity of a new triple S recombinant hepatitis B vaccine in a cohort of healthy people in whom currently licensed hepatitis B vaccines had persistently not induced an immune response. DESIGN:Single centre, randomised, double blind, dose-response study. SETTING:Rese...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 临床试验,杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi:10.1136/bmj.314.7077.329
更新日期:1997-02-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To estimate the effectiveness of delivering an anthelmintic through a community child health programme on the weight gain of preschool children in Uganda. DESIGN:Cluster randomised controlled trial. SETTING:Eastern Uganda. PARTICIPANTS:48 parishes participating in a new programme for child health: 24 offer...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi:10.1136/bmj.38877.393530.7C
更新日期:2006-07-15 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To determine whether being overweight in childhood increases adult obesity and risk of disease. DESIGN:Prospective cohort study. SETTING:City of Newcastle upon Tyne. PARTICIPANTS:932 members of thousand families 1947 birth cohort, of whom 412 attended for clinical examination age 50. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.323.7324.1280
更新日期:2001-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the association between use of hormone replacement therapy and the risk of idiopathic venous thromboembolism. DESIGN:Population based case-control study. SETTING:Population enrolled in the General Practice Research Database, United Kingdom. SUBJECTS:A cohort of 347,253 women aged 50 to 79 witho...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.314.7083.796
更新日期:1997-03-15 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To compare the mortality of patients in a palliative care unit on working days with that on weekends and public holidays. DESIGN:Retrospective database study. SETTING:Palliative care unit in Germany. POPULATION:All admissions to palliative care unit between 1 January 1997 and 31 December 2008. MAIN OUTCOM...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.g7370
更新日期:2014-12-16 00:00:00
abstract::This article reports the success of WHO in eliminating onchocerciasis or river blindness in most of West Africa. The onchocerciasis control program was able to save 100,000 people at immediate risk of contracting the disease and prevented the infection of about 12 million children. About 1.25 million onchocercal inf...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 新闻
doi:10.1136/bmj.319.7217.1090a
更新日期:1999-10-23 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To assess the potential effects of primary prevention with anticoagulants or aspirin in atrial fibrillation on Swedish population. DESIGN:Analysis of cost effectiveness based on the following assumptions: about 83,000 people have atrial fibrillation in Sweden, of whom 22,000 would be potential candidates for...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.305.6867.1457
更新日期:1992-12-12 00:00:00