Abstract:
INTRODUCTION:Setting and monitoring progress towards targets for HIV control is critical in ensuring responsive programmes. Here, we explore how to apply targets for reduction in HIV incidence to local settings and which indicators give the strongest signal of a change in incidence in the population and are therefore most important to monitor. METHODS:We use location-specific HIV transmission models, tailored to the epidemics in the counties and major cities in Kenya, to project a wide range of plausible future epidemic trajectories through varying behaviours, treatment coverage and prevention interventions. We look at the change in incidence across modelled scenarios in each location between 2015 and 2030 to inform local target setting. We also simulate the measurement of a library of potential indicators and assess which are most strongly associated with a change in incidence. RESULTS:Considerable variation was observed in the trajectory of the local epidemics under the plausible scenarios defined (only 10 of 48 locations saw a median reduction in incidence of greater than or equal to an 80% target by 2030). Indicators that provide strong signals in certain epidemic types may not perform consistently well in settings with different epidemiological features. Predicting changes in incidence is more challenging in advanced generalized epidemics compared to concentrated epidemics where changes in high-risk sub-populations track more closely to the population as a whole. Many indicators demonstrate only limited association with incidence (such as "condom use" or "pre-exposure prophylaxis coverage"). This is because many other factors (low effectiveness, impact of other interventions, countervailing changes in risk behaviours, etc.) can confound the relationship between interventions and their ultimate long-term impact, especially for an intervention with low expected coverage. The population prevalence of viral suppression shows the most consistent associations with long-term changes in incidence even in the largest generalized epidemics. CONCLUSIONS:Target setting should be appropriate for the local epidemic and what can feasibly be achieved. There is no one universally reliable indicator to predict future HIV incidence across settings. Thus, the signature of epidemic control must contain indications of success across a wide range of interventions and outcomes.
journal_name
J Int AIDS Socjournal_title
Journal of the International AIDS Societyauthors
Anderson SJ,Garnett GP,Enstone J,Hallett TBdoi
10.1002/jia2.25203subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2018-11-01 00:00:00pages
e25203issue
11issn
1758-2652journal_volume
21pub_type
杂志文章abstract:INTRODUCTION:T cell immunoglobulin and mucin domain (Tim) 3 and programmed death 1 (PD-1) are co-inhibitory receptors involved in the so-called T cell exhaustion, and in vivo blockade of these molecules restores T cell dysfunction. High expression of Tim-3 and PD-1 is induced after chronic antigen-specific stimulation ...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7448/IAS.18.1.20078
更新日期:2015-10-19 00:00:00
abstract::[This corrects the article DOI: 10.7448/IAS.20.01/21317.]. ...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 已发布勘误
doi:10.7448/IAS.20.1.22066
更新日期:2017-06-02 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:Cenicriviroc (CVC), a once-daily, dual CCR5/CCR2 co-receptor antagonist, has completed Phase 2b development. CVC demonstrated favourable safety and similar efficacy compared with efavirenz (EFV) in Study 202 (NCT01338883); an ex vivo sub-analysis evaluated treatment effects on HIV entry, measured by intrac...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7448/IAS.17.4.19531
更新日期:2014-11-02 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:Rilpivirine (RPV) is a second-generation non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) that was recently approved for the treatment of antiretroviral-naïve individuals with HIV-1 viral load of <100,000 copies/ml. As transmission of the drug resistance mutations to this NNRTI may affect treatment o...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7448/IAS.17.1.18929
更新日期:2014-04-17 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:Safer conception strategies minimize HIV risk during condomless sex to become pregnant. Gaps remain in understanding the acceptability, feasibility and choices HIV-serodiscordant couples make when multiple safer conception options are available. METHODS:We conducted a pilot study of a comprehensive safer ...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1002/jia2.25261
更新日期:2019-04-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:The aim of our study was to assess the extent of late presentation for HIV care in Northern Greece during the period 2000 to 2010 and to explore correlations aiming to provide guidance for future interventions. METHODS:HIV-positive patients with no prior history of HIV care at presentation and with a CD4 T ...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7448/IAS.15.2.17395
更新日期:2012-10-11 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:Vaginal tenofovir (TFV) 1% gel may reduce incident HIV-1 and herpes simplex virus 2 infection. Pregnancy may increase risk of HIV acquisition, and incident HIV in pregnancy potentiates perinatal HIV transmission. Our objective was to investigate the safety and pharmacokinetics of seven days of TFV 1% vagin...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7448/IAS.19.1.20990
更新日期:2016-09-21 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:Two new microbicide products based on topical (vaginal) application of antiretroviral drugs - 1% tenofovir gel and the dapivirine ring - are currently in late-stage clinical testing, and results on their safety and effectiveness are expected to become available in early 2015. WHO guidelines on the use of t...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7448/IAS.17.3.19279
更新日期:2014-09-08 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:The majority of new HIV infections occur through mucosal transmission. The availability of readily applicable and accessible platforms for anti-retroviral (ARV) delivery is critical for the prevention of HIV acquisition through sexual transmission in both women and men. There is a compelling need for devel...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1002/jia2.25628
更新日期:2020-10-01 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:The HIV epidemics in the Caribbean, Central America and South America (CCASA), Eastern Europe (EE) and Asia and Pacific (AP) regions are diverse epidemics affecting different key populations in predominantly middle-income countries. This narrative review describes the populations of HIV-positive youth appr...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7448/IAS.20.4.21475
更新日期:2017-05-16 00:00:00
abstract::Potent antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces mortality and morbidity in people living with HIV by reducing viral load and allowing their immune systems to recover. The reduction in viral load soon after starting ART has led to the hypothesis that early and widespread ART could prevent onward transmission and therefore ...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/1758-2652-14-S1-S6
更新日期:2011-07-06 00:00:00
abstract::While there has been remarkable progress in understanding the biology of HIV-1 and its recognition by the human immune system, we have not yet developed an efficacious HIV-1 vaccine. Vaccine challenges include the genetic diversity and mutability of HIV-1 which create a plethora of constantly changing antigens, the st...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.7448/IAS.15.2.17407
更新日期:2012-07-05 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:Policies for rationing antiretroviral therapy (ART) have been subject to on-going ethical debates. Introduced in Malawi in 2011, Option B+ prioritized HIV-positive pregnant women for lifelong ART regardless of the underlying state of their immune system, shifting the logic of allocation away from medical e...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7448/IAS.20.1.21467
更新日期:2017-03-08 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:Changes in combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) throughout childhood challenge the continuity of paediatric HIV treatment. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of treatment interruption (TI), including lamivudine (3TC) monotherapy, and the relationship of TI to virologic and immunologic paramet...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7448/IAS.19.1.20936
更新日期:2016-10-27 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:Anaemia is prevalent among children born to HIV-positive women, and it is associated with adverse effects on cognitive and motor development, growth, and increased risks of morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE:To examine the effect of daily multivitamin supplementation on haematologic status and mother-to-c...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi:10.7448/IAS.16.1.18022
更新日期:2013-08-13 00:00:00
abstract:: The HIV/AIDS epidemic continues to be a major issue facing Botswana, with overall adult HIV prevalence estimated to be 25.7 percent in 2007. This paper estimates the cost and impact of the draft Ministry of Health male circumcision strategy using the UNAIDS/WHO Decision-Makers' Programme Planning Tool (DMPPT). Demogr...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/1758-2652-12-7
更新日期:2009-05-27 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Volunteer caregivers are a critical source of support for the majority of people living with HIV and AIDS in southern Africa, which has extremely high HIV/AIDS prevalence rates. While studies have shown that volunteer caregiving is associated with negative health and socio-economic outcomes, little is known ...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/1758-2652-13-22
更新日期:2010-06-14 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:HIV incidence remains high among young women in sub-Saharan Africa in spite of scale-up of HIV testing, behavioural interventions, antiretroviral treatment and medical male circumcision. There is a critical need to critique past approaches and learn about the most effective implementation of evidence-based...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7448/IAS.18.4.20227
更新日期:2015-07-20 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:In 2014 the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS defined the ambitious 90-90-90 targets for 2020, in which 90% of people living with HIV must be diagnosed, 90% of those diagnosed should be on sustained therapy and 90% of those on therapy should have an undetectable viral load. Children are considered...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.7448/IAS.18.7.20236
更新日期:2015-12-02 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:Qualitative research on antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence interventions can provide a deeper understanding of intervention facilitators and barriers. This systematic review aims to synthesize qualitative evidence of interventions for improving ART adherence and to inform patient-centred policymaking. ...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.7448/IAS.19.1.21166
更新日期:2016-10-17 00:00:00
abstract::Prevention of HIV infection has recently acquired new effective tools, based on the provision of antiretrovirals, to both decrease the "source" of HIV infection and/or to decrease host susceptibility to HIV infection. The milestone concept of using antiretrovirals for prevention has been tested already in the 1990s, t...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7448/IAS.17.4.19521
更新日期:2014-11-02 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:Despite recent advances in the management of HIV infection and increased access to treatment, prevention, care and support, the HIV/AIDS epidemic continues to be a major global health problem, with sub-Saharan Africa suffering by far the greatest humanitarian, demographic and socio-economic burden of the e...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7448/IAS.15.2.17422
更新日期:2012-11-21 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:WHO recommends assisted partner notification (APN) for people living with HIV (PLHIV). These services have not been widely scaled in Central Asia. We describe the results from an APN intervention implemented within a programme focused on PLHIV and people who inject drugs in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic ...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1002/jia2.25313
更新日期:2019-07-01 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:Since 2003, US government funding to address the HIV and AIDS pandemic has been subject to an anti-prostitution clause. Simultaneously, the efficacy of some HIV prevention efforts for sex work in areas receiving US government funding has diminished. This article seeks to explain why. METHODS:This analysis...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7448/IAS.16.1.17354
更新日期:2013-03-28 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:Sex workers, people who use drugs, men who have sex with men, women who have sex with women and transgender people in South Africa frequently experience high levels of stigma, abuse and discrimination. Evidence suggests that such abuse is sometimes committed by police officers, meaning that those charged w...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7448/IAS.19.4.20872
更新日期:2016-07-18 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:HIV controllers (HIC) maintain viraemia at low levels without antiretroviral treatment and have small HIV reservoirs. Nevertheless, they are heterogeneous regarding their risk of infection progression. The study of reservoirs can help elucidate this control. This study aimed to explore the factors implicat...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1002/jia2.25221
更新日期:2019-01-01 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:A severe healthcare worker shortage in sub-Saharan Africa is inhibiting the expansion of HIV treatment. Task shifting, the transfer of antiretroviral therapy (ART) management and initiation from doctors to nurses and other non-physician clinicians, has been proposed to address this problem. However, many h...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
doi:10.7448/IAS.16.1.18445
更新日期:2013-07-03 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:Women living with HIV are required to transition into the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) services when they become pregnant and back to ART services after delivery. Transition can be a vulnerable time when many women are lost from HIV care yet there is little guidance on the opti...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1002/jia2.25633
更新日期:2021-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::Eastern Europe and Central Asia have the largest drug epidemic globally and the fastest and still expanding HIV epidemic. The Russian Federation and Ukraine together account for over 90% of the reported AIDS cases in the region. If small in absolute numbers, the epidemics are however significant in prevalence rate in ...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7448/IAS.17.4.19501
更新日期:2014-11-02 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:Women living with HIV (WLWH) are reportedly at increased risk of invasive cervical cancer (ICC). WLWH in Denmark attend the National ICC screening program less often than women in the general population. We aimed to estimate the incidence of cervical dysplasia and ICC in WLWH in Denmark. METHODS:We studie...
journal_title:Journal of the International AIDS Society
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.7448/IAS.17.4.19646
更新日期:2014-11-02 00:00:00