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A discriminant analysis prediction model of non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate based on risk factors.

Abstract：

BACKGROUND:A risk prediction model of non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (NSCL/P) was established by a discriminant analysis to predict the individual risk of NSCL/P in pregnant women. METHODS:A hospital-based case-control study was conducted with 113 cases of NSCL/P and 226 controls without NSCL/P. The cases and the controls were obtained from 52 birth defects' surveillance hospitals in Hunan Province, China. A questionnaire was administered in person to collect the variables relevant to NSCL/P by face to face interviews. Logistic regression models were used to analyze the influencing factors of NSCL/P, and a stepwise Fisher discriminant analysis was subsequently used to construct the prediction model. RESULTS:In the univariate analysis, 13 influencing factors were related to NSCL/P, of which the following 8 influencing factors as predictors determined the discriminant prediction model: family income, maternal occupational hazards exposure, premarital medical examination, housing renovation, milk/soymilk intake in the first trimester of pregnancy, paternal occupational hazards exposure, paternal strong tea drinking, and family history of NSCL/P. The model had statistical significance (lambda = 0.772, chi-square = 86.044, df = 8, P < 0.001). Self-verification showed that 83.8 % of the participants were correctly predicted to be NSCL/P cases or controls with a sensitivity of 74.3 % and a specificity of 88.5 %. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.846. CONCLUSIONS:The prediction model that was established using the risk factors of NSCL/P can be useful for predicting the risk of NSCL/P. Further research is needed to improve the model, and confirm the validity and reliability of the model.

journal_name

BMC Pregnancy Childbirth

journal_title

BMC pregnancy and childbirth

authors

Li H,Luo M,Luo J,Zheng J,Zeng R,Du Q,Fang J,Ouyang N

doi

10.1186/s12884-016-1116-4

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2016-11-23 00:00:00

pages

368

issue

1

issn

1471-2393

pii

10.1186/s12884-016-1116-4

journal_volume

16

pub_type

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