Why the C-statistic is not informative to evaluate early warning scores and what metrics to use.

Abstract:

:Metrics typically used to report the performance of an early warning score (EWS), such as the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve or C-statistic, are not useful for pre-implementation analyses. Because physiological deterioration has an extremely low prevalence of 0.02 per patient-day, these metrics can be misleading. We discuss the statistical reasoning behind this statement and present a novel alternative metric more adequate to operationalize an EWS. We suggest that pre-implementation evaluation of EWSs should include at least two metrics: sensitivity; and either the positive predictive value, number needed to evaluate, or estimated rate of alerts. We also argue the importance of reporting each individual cutoff value.

journal_name

Crit Care

authors

Romero-Brufau S,Huddleston JM,Escobar GJ,Liebow M

doi

10.1186/s13054-015-0999-1

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2015-08-13 00:00:00

pages

285

eissn

1364-8535

issn

1466-609X

pii

10.1186/s13054-015-0999-1

journal_volume

19

pub_type

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