A predictive scoring instrument for tuberculosis lost to follow-up outcome.

Abstract:

BACKGROUND:Adherence to tuberculosis (TB) treatment is troublesome, due to long therapy duration, quick therapeutic response which allows the patient to disregard about the rest of their treatment and the lack of motivation on behalf of the patient for improved. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a scoring system to predict the probability of lost to follow-up outcome in TB patients as a way to identify patients suitable for directly observed treatments (DOT) and other interventions to improve adherence. METHODS:Two prospective cohorts, were used to develop and validate a logistic regression model. A scoring system was constructed, based on the coefficients of factors associated with a lost to follow-up outcome. The probability of lost to follow-up outcome associated with each score was calculated. Predictions in both cohorts were tested using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC). RESULTS:The best model to predict lost to follow-up outcome included the following characteristics: immigration (1 point value), living alone (1 point) or in an institution (2 points), previous anti-TB treatment (2 points), poor patient understanding (2 points), intravenous drugs use (IDU) (4 points) or unknown IDU status (1 point). Scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 points were associated with a lost to follow-up probability of 2,2% 5,4% 9,9%, 16,4%, 15%, and 28%, respectively. The ROC curve for the validation group demonstrated a good fit (AUC: 0,67 [95% CI; 0,65-0,70]). CONCLUSION:This model has a good capacity to predict a lost to follow-up outcome. Its use could help TB Programs to determine which patients are good candidates for DOT and other strategies to improve TB treatment adherence.

journal_name

Respir Res

journal_title

Respiratory research

authors

Rodrigo T,Caylà JA,Casals M,García-García JM,Caminero JA,Ruiz-Manzano J,Blanquer R,Vidal R,Altet N,Calpe JL,Penas A,Working Group on Completion of Tuberculosis Treatment in Spain.

doi

10.1186/1465-9921-13-75

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2012-09-02 00:00:00

pages

75

eissn

1465-9921

issn

1465-993X

pii

1465-9921-13-75

journal_volume

13

pub_type

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