Abstract:
OBJECTIVE:To derive and validate an algorithm to estimate the absolute risk of having ovarian cancer in women with and without symptoms. DESIGN:Cohort study with data from 375 UK QResearch general practices for development and 189 for validation. PARTICIPANTS:Women aged 30-84 without a diagnosis of ovarian cancer at baseline and without appetite loss, weight loss, abdominal pain, abdominal distension, rectal bleeding, or postmenopausal bleeding recorded in previous 12 months. Main outcome The primary outcome was incident diagnosis of ovarian cancer recorded in the next two years. METHODS:Risk factors examined included age, family history of ovarian cancer, previous cancers other than ovarian, body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol, deprivation, loss of appetite, weight loss, abdominal pain, abdominal distension, rectal bleeding, postmenopausal bleeding, urinary frequency, diarrhoea, constipation, tiredness, and anaemia. Cox proportional hazards models were used to develop the risk equation. Measures of calibration and discrimination assessed performance in the validation cohort. RESULTS:In the derivation cohort there were 976 incident cases of ovarian cancer from 2.03 million person years. Independent predictors were age, family history of ovarian cancer (9.8-fold higher risk), anaemia (2.3-fold higher), abdominal pain (sevenfold higher), abdominal distension (23-fold higher), rectal bleeding (twofold higher), postmenopausal bleeding (6.6-fold higher), appetite loss (5.2-fold higher), and weight loss (twofold higher). On validation, the algorithm explained 57.6% of the variation. The receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) statistic was 0.84, and the D statistic was 2.38. The 10% of women with the highest predicted risks contained 63% of all ovarian cancers diagnosed over the next two years. CONCLUSION:The algorithm has good discrimination and calibration and, after independent validation in an external cohort, could potentially be used to identify those at highest risk of ovarian cancer to facilitate early referral and investigation. Further research is needed to assess how best to implement the algorithm, its cost effectiveness, and whether, on implementation, it has any impact on health outcomes.
journal_name
BMJjournal_title
BMJ (Clinical research ed.)authors
Hippisley-Cox J,Coupland Cdoi
10.1136/bmj.d8009subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2011-01-04 00:00:00pages
d8009eissn
0959-8138issn
1756-1833journal_volume
344pub_type
杂志文章abstract:OBJECTIVE:To determine whether in a patient with spontaneous pneumothorax the presence or absence of a pleural leak can be shown at the time of manual aspiration by use of a marker gas. Also, to find out if the technique can predict whether manual aspiration will be successful, hence avoiding the need for intercostal t...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.302.6771.262
更新日期:1991-02-02 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To identify the genetic determinants of fracture risk and assess the role of 15 clinical risk factors on osteoporotic fracture risk. DESIGN:Meta-analysis of genome wide association studies (GWAS) and a two-sample mendelian randomisation approach. SETTING:25 cohorts from Europe, United States, east Asia, an...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
doi:10.1136/bmj.k3225
更新日期:2018-08-29 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To assess the education and workload of preregistration house officers in the four Thames regions. DESIGN:Postal questionnaire. SETTING:Teaching and non-teaching hospitals in the four Thames regions. PARTICIPANTS:1064 Preregistration house officers. RESULTS:Response rate was 70% (740 replies). Nine per ce...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.300.6726.713
更新日期:1990-03-17 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To determine the association between ambulance response time and survival from out of hospital cardiopulmonary arrest and to estimate the effect of reducing response times. DESIGN:Cohort study. SETTING:Scottish Ambulance Service. SUBJECTS:All out of hospital cardiopulmonary arrests due to cardiac disease ...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.322.7299.1385
更新日期:2001-06-09 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To investigate use of commodes and attitudes of users and carers to them. DESIGN:Interview with semi-structured questionnaire of subjects supplied with commodes from Leeds community appliance centre. SUBJECTS:140 users of a commode and 105 of their carers. RESULTS:Main reasons for being supplied with a co...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.307.6914.1258
更新日期:1993-11-13 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To study the effects on children of humanitarian aid agencies restricting help to refugee families (internally displaced people). DESIGN:Follow up study of 3 months. SETTING:Prabis peninsular outside Bissau, the capital of Guinea-Bissau, which has functioned as a refugee area for internally displaced people...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.319.7214.878
更新日期:1999-10-02 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To use funnel plots and cumulative funnel plots to compare in-hospital outcome data for operators undertaking percutaneous coronary interventions with predicted results derived from a validated risk score to allow for early detection of variation in performance. DESIGN:Analysis of prospectively collected dat...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.39512.529120.BE
更新日期:2008-04-26 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To assess the impact of a theoretically based sex education programme (SHARE) delivered by teachers compared with conventional education in terms of conceptions and terminations registered by the NHS. DESIGN:Follow-up of cluster randomised trial 4.5 years after intervention. SETTING:NHS records of women who...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究,随机对照试验
doi:10.1136/bmj.39014.503692.55
更新日期:2007-01-20 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To identify the nature and extent of any vocational training deficit within the London initiative zone and investigate the reasons. DESIGN:Collation of statistics and postal questionnaire surveys. SETTING:Thames regions inside and outside the London initiative zone. SUBJECTS:General practice registrars, tr...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.312.7023.97
更新日期:1996-01-13 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To calculate socioeconomic and health status measures for the primary care groups in London and to examine the association between these measures and hospital admission rates. DESIGN:Cross sectional study. SETTING:66 primary care groups in London, total list size 8.0 million people. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.321.7268.1057
更新日期:2000-10-28 00:00:00
abstract::In order to determine whether the loss in bone density seen in users of depot medroxyprogesterone acetate is reversible, a comparative study was undertaken in three groups of women. Group 1 consisted of 14 women who had used the contraceptive for at least 3 years and then discontinued use. Group 2 was 22 longterm us...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.308.6923.247
更新日期:1994-01-22 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To measure the potential for cadaver organ retrieval in New South Wales and to determine the reasons for potential donors failing to become actual donors. DESIGN:Prospective audit of all patients dying in five hospitals in New South Wales between 1 December 1989 and 30 November 1990; quality assurance of th...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.304.6838.1339
更新日期:1992-05-23 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To determine if the Food Standards Agency nutrient profiling system (FSAm-NPS), which grades the nutritional quality of food products and is used to derive the Nutri-Score front-of-packet label to guide consumers towards healthier food choices, is associated with mortality. DESIGN:Population based cohort stu...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.m3173
更新日期:2020-09-16 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To investigate the consequences of longstanding obesity on left ventricular mass and structure and to examine the effects of weight loss on these variables. DESIGN:Cross sectional survey and controlled intervention study. SETTING:City of Gothenburg and surrounding areas. Sweden. SUBJECTS:41 obese patients...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.315.7113.912
更新日期:1997-10-11 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:To understand the approaches to learning of practising physicians in their workplace and to assess the relation of these approaches to their motivation for, preferred methods of, and perceived barriers to continuing medical education. DESIGN:Postal survey of 800 Ontario physicians. PARTICIPANTS:373 physici...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.325.7374.1218
更新日期:2002-11-23 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To determine the prevalence of diabetes in relation to birth weight in Pima Indians. DESIGN:Follow up study of infants born during 1940-72 who had undergone a glucose tolerance test at ages 20-39 years. SETTING:Gila River Indian community, Arizona. SUBJECTS:1179 American Indians. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE:Prev...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.308.6934.942
更新日期:1994-04-09 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To identify major concerns of national and local importance in the provision, commissioning, research, and use of generalist end of life care. DESIGN:A national consultation and prioritising exercise using a modified form of the nominal group technique. PARTICIPANTS:Healthcare practitioners, commissioners, ...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1136/bmj.a1720
更新日期:2008-10-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To investigate the association between treatment induced change in high density lipoprotein cholesterol and total death, coronary heart disease death, and coronary heart disease events (coronary heart disease death and non-fatal myocardial infarction) adjusted for changes in low density lipoprotein cholestero...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
doi:10.1136/bmj.b92
更新日期:2009-02-16 00:00:00
abstract::The identification of the gene for cystic fibrosis has led to the possibility of population based screening for carriers of cystic fibrosis to identify couples at risk of having an affected child. Pilot studies have shown that screening is feasible and does not cause untoward anxiety, though the uptake of testing vari...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.307.6908.849
更新日期:1993-10-02 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To examine whether, according to the conclusions of a 2000 systematic review with meta-analysis on interventions to prevent pain from propofol injection that provided a research agenda to guide further research on the topic, subsequently published trials were more often optimally blinded, reported on children...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1136/bmj.g5219
更新日期:2014-08-26 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.307.6895.17
更新日期:1993-07-03 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To describe the progression of HIV disease in a haemophilic cohort and to show the influence of treatment. DESIGN:11 year longitudinal clinical and laboratory study. SETTING:A haemophilia centre. PATIENTS:111 patients infected with HIV during October 1979 to July 1985. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:Symptoms of HI...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 临床试验,杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.303.6810.1093
更新日期:1991-11-02 00:00:00
abstract::An increase in the incidence of cardiovascular disease has generally been observed in postmenopausal women, but there have been few studies of the association between menopausal state and atherosclerosis. In this study 294 premenopausal and 319 postmenopausal women aged 45 to 55 were examined radiographically for calc...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.298.6674.642
更新日期:1989-03-11 00:00:00
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journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
doi:10.1136/bmj.e3485
更新日期:2012-06-12 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To assess the impact of a pay for performance incentive on quality of care and outcomes among UK patients with hypertension in primary care. DESIGN:Interrupted time series. SETTING:The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database, United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS:470 725 patients with hypertension diagnosed betw...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.d108
更新日期:2011-01-25 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To assess adjustment practices for primary outcomes of randomized controlled trials and their impact on the results. DESIGN:Meta-epidemiologic study. DATA SOURCES:25 biomedical journals with the highest impact factor according to Journal Citation Reports 2009. STUDY SELECTION:Randomized controlled trials p...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
doi:10.1136/bmj.f4313
更新日期:2013-07-12 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To determine the relative contribution of decline in bone density to the increase in risk of hip fracture with age in men and women. DESIGN:Incidence data of hip fracture from the general population were combined with the bone density distribution in a sample from the same population and with a risk estimate...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.315.7102.221
更新日期:1997-07-26 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To study the association between number of cups of coffee consumed per day and coronary death when taking other major coronary risk factors into account. DESIGN:Men and women attending screening and followed up for a mean of 6.4 years. SETTING:Cardiovascular survey performed by ambulatory teams from the Nat...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.300.6724.566
更新日期:1990-03-03 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE: To identify and characterise non-specific immunological effects after routine childhood vaccines against BCG, measles, diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus. DESIGN: Systematic review of randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, and case-control studies. DATA SOURCES: Embase, PubMed, Cochrane library, and...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1136/bmj.i5225
更新日期:2016-10-13 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the associations between personal use of permanent hair dyes and cancer risk and mortality. DESIGN:Prospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS:117 200 women enrolled in the Nurses' Health Study, an ongoing prospective cohort study of female nurses in the United States. The women were free...
journal_title:BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1136/bmj.m2942
更新日期:2020-09-02 00:00:00