Abstract:
UNLABELLED:world has not faced a severe pandemic for decades, except the rather mild H1N1 one in 2009, pandemic influenza models are inherently hypothetical and validation is, thus, difficult. We aim at reconstructing a recent seasonal influenza epidemic that occurred in Switzerland and deem this to be a promising validation strategy for models of influenza spread. METHODS:We present a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model of influenza spread. The simulation model bases upon (i) simulated human travel data, (ii) data on human contact patterns and (iii) empirical knowledge on the epidemiology of influenza. For model validation we compare the simulation outcomes with empirical knowledge regarding (i) the shape of the epidemic curve, overall infection rate and reproduction number, (ii) age-dependent infection rates and time of infection, (iii) spatial patterns. RESULTS:The simulation model is capable of reproducing the shape of the 2003/2004 H3N2 epidemic curve of Switzerland and generates an overall infection rate (14.9 percent) and reproduction numbers (between 1.2 and 1.3), which are realistic for seasonal influenza epidemics. Age and spatial patterns observed in empirical data are also reflected by the model: Highest infection rates are in children between 5 and 14 and the disease spreads along the main transport axes from west to east. CONCLUSIONS:We show that finding evidence for the validity of simulation models of influenza spread by challenging them with seasonal influenza outbreak data is possible and promising. Simulation models for pandemic spread gain more credibility if they are able to reproduce seasonal influenza outbreaks. For more robust modelling of seasonal influenza, serological data complementing sentinel information would be beneficial.
journal_name
BMC Infect Disjournal_title
BMC infectious diseasesauthors
Smieszek T,Balmer M,Hattendorf J,Axhausen KW,Zinsstag J,Scholz RWdoi
10.1186/1471-2334-11-115subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2011-05-09 00:00:00pages
115issn
1471-2334pii
1471-2334-11-115journal_volume
11pub_type
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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abstract:BACKGROUND:Under-reporting of tuberculosis (TB) cases complicates disease control, hinders contact tracing and alters the accuracy of epidemiological data, including disease burden. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the proportion of unreported TB cases in Spanish healthcare facilities and to identify t...
journal_title:BMC infectious diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/s12879-015-1047-0
更新日期:2015-07-29 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/1471-2334-12-343
更新日期:2012-12-10 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Rotavirus (RV) vaccine was added to Yemen's childhood vaccination schedule in late 2012. We evaluated the effect of vaccination on the epidemiology of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) and the characteristics of circulating RV strains. METHODS:Surveillance data was obtained at two sentinel hospitals from 5,691 ch...
journal_title:BMC infectious diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1186/s12879-015-1165-8
更新日期:2015-10-13 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:The public health response to Zika outbreak has mostly focused on epidemiological surveillance, vector control, and individual level preventative measures. This qualitative study employs a social-ecological framework to examine how macro (historical, legislative, political, socio-economic factors), meso (sou...
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pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/s12879-020-04987-8
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abstract:BACKGROUND:Refugees in sub-Saharan Africa face both the risk of HIV infection and barriers to HIV testing. We conducted a pilot study to determine the feasibility and acceptability of home-based HIV testing in Nakivale Refugee Settlement in Uganda and to compare home-based and clinic-based testing participants in Nakiv...
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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journal_title:BMC infectious diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验
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更新日期:2009-01-17 00:00:00
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更新日期:2013-03-15 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究,随机对照试验
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pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
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更新日期:2017-04-12 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/1471-2334-6-115
更新日期:2006-07-17 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/1471-2334-10-170
更新日期:2010-06-14 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究,随机对照试验
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更新日期:2016-10-03 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2008-03-06 00:00:00
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更新日期:2007-04-18 00:00:00