Reconstructing the 2003/2004 H3N2 influenza epidemic in Switzerland with a spatially explicit, individual-based model.

Abstract:

UNLABELLED:world has not faced a severe pandemic for decades, except the rather mild H1N1 one in 2009, pandemic influenza models are inherently hypothetical and validation is, thus, difficult. We aim at reconstructing a recent seasonal influenza epidemic that occurred in Switzerland and deem this to be a promising validation strategy for models of influenza spread. METHODS:We present a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model of influenza spread. The simulation model bases upon (i) simulated human travel data, (ii) data on human contact patterns and (iii) empirical knowledge on the epidemiology of influenza. For model validation we compare the simulation outcomes with empirical knowledge regarding (i) the shape of the epidemic curve, overall infection rate and reproduction number, (ii) age-dependent infection rates and time of infection, (iii) spatial patterns. RESULTS:The simulation model is capable of reproducing the shape of the 2003/2004 H3N2 epidemic curve of Switzerland and generates an overall infection rate (14.9 percent) and reproduction numbers (between 1.2 and 1.3), which are realistic for seasonal influenza epidemics. Age and spatial patterns observed in empirical data are also reflected by the model: Highest infection rates are in children between 5 and 14 and the disease spreads along the main transport axes from west to east. CONCLUSIONS:We show that finding evidence for the validity of simulation models of influenza spread by challenging them with seasonal influenza outbreak data is possible and promising. Simulation models for pandemic spread gain more credibility if they are able to reproduce seasonal influenza outbreaks. For more robust modelling of seasonal influenza, serological data complementing sentinel information would be beneficial.

journal_name

BMC Infect Dis

journal_title

BMC infectious diseases

authors

Smieszek T,Balmer M,Hattendorf J,Axhausen KW,Zinsstag J,Scholz RW

doi

10.1186/1471-2334-11-115

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2011-05-09 00:00:00

pages

115

issn

1471-2334

pii

1471-2334-11-115

journal_volume

11

pub_type

杂志文章
  • Case report: multiple and atypical amoebic cerebral abscesses resistant to treatment.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The parasite Entamoeba histolytica is the causal agent of amoebiasis, a worldwide emerging disease. Amebic brain abscess is a form of invasive amebiasis that is both rare and frequently lethal. This condition always begins with the infection of the colon by E. histolytica trophozoites, which subsequently tra...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12879-020-05391-y

    authors: Victoria-Hernández JA,Ventura-Saucedo A,López-Morones A,Martínez-Hernández SL,Medina-Rosales MN,Muñoz-Ortega M,Ávila-Blanco ME,Cervantes-García D,Barba-Gallardo LF,Ventura-Juárez J

    更新日期:2020-09-14 00:00:00

  • Factors associated with unreported tuberculosis cases in Spanish hospitals.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Under-reporting of tuberculosis (TB) cases complicates disease control, hinders contact tracing and alters the accuracy of epidemiological data, including disease burden. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the proportion of unreported TB cases in Spanish healthcare facilities and to identify t...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12879-015-1047-0

    authors: Morales-García C,Rodrigo T,García-Clemente MM,Muñoz A,Bermúdez P,Casas F,Somoza M,Milá C,Penas A,Hidalgo C,Casals M,Caylá JA,Working Group on Under-reporting of Tuberculosis in Spain.

    更新日期:2015-07-29 00:00:00

  • Molecular typing and characterization of nasal carriage and community-onset infection methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus isolates in two Taiwan medical centers.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Compared to methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), characteristics of nasal carriage and community-onset infection methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) are less well known. No characteristics of MSSA in Taiwan have been reported previously. METHODS:We analyzed 100 nasal carriage and 34 comm...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2334-12-343

    authors: Chen FJ,Siu LK,Lin JC,Wang CH,Lu PL

    更新日期:2012-12-10 00:00:00

  • The epidemiology of all-cause and rotavirus acute gastroenteritis and the characteristics of rotavirus circulating strains before and after rotavirus vaccine introduction in Yemen: analysis of hospital-based surveillance data.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Rotavirus (RV) vaccine was added to Yemen's childhood vaccination schedule in late 2012. We evaluated the effect of vaccination on the epidemiology of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) and the characteristics of circulating RV strains. METHODS:Surveillance data was obtained at two sentinel hospitals from 5,691 ch...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究

    doi:10.1186/s12879-015-1165-8

    authors: Banajeh SM,Abu-Asba BA

    更新日期:2015-10-13 00:00:00

  • Solidarity, vulnerability and mistrust: how context, information and government affect the lives of women in times of Zika.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The public health response to Zika outbreak has mostly focused on epidemiological surveillance, vector control, and individual level preventative measures. This qualitative study employs a social-ecological framework to examine how macro (historical, legislative, political, socio-economic factors), meso (sou...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12879-020-04987-8

    authors: Linde-Arias AR,Roura M,Siqueira E

    更新日期:2020-04-03 00:00:00

  • Feasibility and acceptability of home-based HIV testing among refugees: a pilot study in Nakivale refugee settlement in southwestern Uganda.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Refugees in sub-Saharan Africa face both the risk of HIV infection and barriers to HIV testing. We conducted a pilot study to determine the feasibility and acceptability of home-based HIV testing in Nakivale Refugee Settlement in Uganda and to compare home-based and clinic-based testing participants in Nakiv...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12879-018-3238-y

    authors: O'Laughlin KN,He W,Greenwald KE,Kasozi J,Chang Y,Mulogo E,Faustin ZM,Njogu P,Walensky RP,Bassett IV

    更新日期:2018-07-16 00:00:00

  • Circulating granulysin levels in healthcare workers and latent tuberculosis infection estimated using interferon-gamma release assays.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Granulysin (GNLY) is produced by human lymphocyte subpopulations and exhibits antimicrobial activity against Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We examined the association between GNLY levels in blood and latent tuberculosis (TB) infection. METHODS:Latency of TB infection among Vietnamese healthcare workers was es...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1911-6

    authors: Thuong PH,Tam DB,Sakurada S,Hang NT,Hijikata M,Hong LT,Ngoc PT,Anh PT,Cuong VC,Matsushita I,Lien LT,Keicho N

    更新日期:2016-10-18 00:00:00

  • Challenge of conducting a placebo-controlled randomized efficacy study for influenza vaccine in a season with low attack rate and a mismatched vaccine B strain: a concrete example.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Our aim was to determine the efficacy of a trivalent inactivated split virus influenza vaccine (TIV) against culture-confirmed influenza A and/or B in adults 18 to 64 years of age during the 2005/2006 season in the Czech Republic. METHODS:6203 subjects were randomized to receive TIV (N = 4137) or placebo (N...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验

    doi:10.1186/1471-2334-9-2

    authors: Beran J,Wertzova V,Honegr K,Kaliskova E,Havlickova M,Havlik J,Jirincova H,Van Belle P,Jain V,Innis B,Devaster JM

    更新日期:2009-01-17 00:00:00

  • Varicella zoster virus infection presenting as isolated diplopia: a case report.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Involvement of trochlear nerve during Varicella Zoster Virus (VZV) Infection has been rarely described, and always in association with skin rash. CASE PRESENTATION:We describe the case of a patient with VZV infection presenting as isolated diplopia due to fourth cranial nerve palsy. The diagnosis has been o...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2334-13-138

    authors: Pisapia R,Rianda A,Mariano A,Testa A,Galgani S,Vincenzi L,Abdeddaim A,Oliva A,Narciso P

    更新日期:2013-03-15 00:00:00

  • SESOTHO trial ("Switch Either near Suppression Or THOusand") - switch to second-line versus WHO-guided standard of care for unsuppressed patients on first-line ART with viremia below 1000 copies/mL: protocol of a multicenter, parallel-group, open-label, r

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends viral load (VL) measurement as the preferred monitoring strategy for HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. The new WHO guidelines 2016 continue to define virologic failure as two consecutive VL ≥1000 copies/mL (at...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究,随机对照试验

    doi:10.1186/s12879-018-2979-y

    authors: Amstutz A,Nsakala BL,Vanobberghen F,Muhairwe J,Glass TR,Achieng B,Sepeka M,Tlali K,Sao L,Thin K,Klimkait T,Battegay M,Labhardt ND

    更新日期:2018-02-12 00:00:00

  • 26Postoperative diagnosis and outcome in patients with revision arthroplasty for aseptic loosening.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The most common cause of implant failure is aseptic loosening (AL), followed by prosthetic joint infection (PJI). This study evaluates the incidence of PJI among patients operated with suspected AL and whether the diagnosis of PJI was predictive of subsequent implant failure including re-infection, at 2 year...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12879-015-0976-y

    authors: Fernandez-Sampedro M,Salas-Venero C,Fariñas-Álvarez C,Sumillera M,Pérez-Carro L,Fakkas-Fernandez M,Gómez-Román J,Martínez-Martínez L,Fariñas MC

    更新日期:2015-06-18 00:00:00

  • Cognitive screening in treatment-naïve HIV-infected individuals in Hong Kong - a single center study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:HIV-associated neurocognitive disorder (HAND) remains prevalent in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The prevalence of HAND in Hong Kong is not known. METHODS:Between 2013 and 2015, 98 treatment-naïve HIV-1-infected individuals were referred to and screened by the AIDS Clinical Service, ...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12879-019-3784-y

    authors: Chan FCC,Chan P,Chan I,Chan A,Tang THC,Lam W,Fong WC,Lee MP,Li P,Chan GHF

    更新日期:2019-02-13 00:00:00

  • Effectiveness of Progressive Resistive Exercise (PRE) in the context of HIV: systematic review and meta-analysis using the Cochrane Collaboration protocol.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:HIV is increasingly considered a chronic illness. More individuals are living longer and aging with the health-related consequences associated with HIV and multi-morbidity. Exercise is a self-management approach that can promote health for people aging with HIV. We examined the safety and effectiveness of pr...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析

    doi:10.1186/s12879-017-2342-8

    authors: O'Brien KK,Tynan AM,Nixon SA,Glazier RH

    更新日期:2017-04-12 00:00:00

  • Lemierre's syndrome and genetic polymorphisms: a case report.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Lemierre's syndrome presents a classic clinical picture, the pathophysiology of which remains obscure. Attempts have been made to trace genetic predispositions that modify the host detection of pathogen or the resultant systemic reaction. CASE PRESENTATION:A 17-year old female, with no previous medical hist...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2334-6-115

    authors: Constantin JM,Mira JP,Guerin R,Cayot-Constantin S,Lesens O,Gourdon F,Romaszko JP,Linval P,Laurichesse H,Bazin JE

    更新日期:2006-07-17 00:00:00

  • The impact of community-acquired pneumonia on the health-related quality-of-life in elderly.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The sustained health-related quality-of-life of patients surviving community-acquired pneumonia has not been accurately quantified. The aim of the current study was to quantify differences in health-related quality-of-life of community-dwelling elderly with and without community-acquired pneumonia during a 1...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12879-017-2302-3

    authors: Mangen MJ,Huijts SM,Bonten MJ,de Wit GA

    更新日期:2017-03-14 00:00:00

  • Comparison of virus isolation using the Vero E6 cell line with real-time RT-PCR assay for the detection of human metapneumovirus.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The use of cell culture for the diagnosis of human metapneumovirus (hMPV) infection is uncommon at present and molecular method such as reverse-transcription PCR (RT-PCR) has been widely and most commonly used as the preferred test. We aimed to compare the results of virus isolation using Vero E6 cells with ...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2334-10-170

    authors: Matsuzaki Y,Mizuta K,Takashita E,Okamoto M,Itagaki T,Katsushima F,Katsushima Y,Nagai Y,Nishimura H

    更新日期:2010-06-14 00:00:00

  • Human papillomavirus genotypes and P16INK4A expression in squamous penile carcinoma in Mexican patients.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Approximately 50% of cases of penile carcinoma (PeCa), a rare neoplasm worldwide, are associated with human papillomavirus (HPV). However, the detection of HPV-DNA is not sufficient to consider it the etiological factor in the development of this type of cancer. Currently, the overexpression of P16INK4A is u...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12879-019-4696-6

    authors: Martínez-Bailón C,Mantilla-Morales A,Méndez-Matías G,Alvarado-Cabrero I,Maldonado-Rodríguez R,Quintero-Becerra J,Arias-Flores R,Piña-Sánchez P

    更新日期:2019-12-19 00:00:00

  • Comparative activity of carbapenem testing (the COMPACT study) in Turkey.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Recent evidence indicates that Gram-negative bacterial pathogens, the most common of which are Pseudomonas spp., Enterobacteriaceae, and Acinetobacter baumannii, are frequent causes of hospital-acquired infections. This study aims to evaluate the in vitro activity of doripenem and comparator carbapenem antib...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2334-12-42

    authors: Leblebicioglu H,Cakir N,Celen M,Kurt H,Baris H,Laeuffer J,Turkish COMPACT Study Group.

    更新日期:2012-02-16 00:00:00

  • Interpretation of serial interferon-gamma test results to measure new tuberculosis infection among household contacts in Zambia and South Africa.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:A more stringent QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT) conversion (from negative to positive) definition has been proposed to allow more definite detection of recent tuberculosis (TB) infection. We explored alternative conversion definitions to assist the interpretation of serial QFT results and estimate inciden...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究,随机对照试验

    doi:10.1186/s12879-020-05483-9

    authors: Sloot R,Shanaube K,Claassens M,Telisinghe L,Schaap A,Godfrey-Faussett P,Ayles H,Floyd S

    更新日期:2020-10-15 00:00:00

  • Endotoxin tolerance and cross-tolerance in mast cells involves TLR4, TLR2 and FcepsilonR1 interactions and SOCS expression: perspectives on immunomodulation in infectious and allergic diseases.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The study of the endotoxin tolerance phenomenon in light of the recently defined roles of mast cells and toll-like receptors as essential components of the innate immune response and as orchestrators of acquired immunity may reveal potentially useful mechanisms of immunomodulation of infectious and allergic ...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2334-10-240

    authors: Saturnino SF,Prado RO,Cunha-Melo JR,Andrade MV

    更新日期:2010-08-14 00:00:00

  • High prevalence of IgG antibodies to Ebola virus in the Efé pygmy population in the Watsa region, Democratic Republic of the Congo.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Factors related to the natural transmission of Ebola virus (EBOV) to humans are still not well defined. Results of previous sero-prevalence studies suggest that circulation of EBOV in human population is common in sub-Saharan Africa. The Efé pygmies living in Democratic Republic of the Congo are known to be ...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1607-y

    authors: Mulangu S,Borchert M,Paweska J,Tshomba A,Afounde A,Kulidri A,Swanepoel R,Muyembe-Tamfum JJ,Van der Stuyft P

    更新日期:2016-06-10 00:00:00

  • Impact of mass-screening on tuberculosis incidence in a prospective cohort of Brazilian prisoners.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Globally, prison inmates are a high-risk population for tuberculosis (TB), but the specific drivers of disease and impact of mass screening interventions are poorly understood. METHODS:We performed a prospective cohort study to characterize the incidence and risk factors for tuberculosis infection and disea...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1868-5

    authors: Paião DS,Lemos EF,Carbone AD,Sgarbi RV,Junior AL,da Silva FM,Brandão LM,Dos Santos LS,Martins VS,Simionatto S,Motta-Castro AR,Pompílio MA,Urrego J,Ko AI,Andrews JR,Croda J

    更新日期:2016-10-03 00:00:00

  • Prevention of Clostridium difficile spore formation by sub-inhibitory concentrations of tigecycline and piperacillin/tazobactam.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Sporulation of Clostridium difficile during infection and persistence of spores within the gut could partly explain treatment failures and recurrence. However, the influence of antibiotics on sporulation is unclear. The objective of our study was to evaluate the impact of ciprofloxacin, metronidazole, pipera...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-29

    authors: Garneau JR,Valiquette L,Fortier LC

    更新日期:2014-01-15 00:00:00

  • An atypical winter outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease associated with human enterovirus 71, 2010.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and pathogenic molecular characteristics of an hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreak caused by enterovirus 71 in Linyi City, Shandong Province, China during November 30 to December 28, 2010. METHODS:One hundred and seventy three stool specimens and 40 t...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-123

    authors: Liu N,Xie J,Qiu X,Jia L,Wu Z,Ma Y,Wang Z,Li P,Ren X,Hao R,Wang L,Wang Y,Qiu S,Song H

    更新日期:2014-03-04 00:00:00

  • Changes in the prevalence and biofilm formation of Haemophilus influenzae and Haemophilus parainfluenzae from the respiratory microbiota of patients with sarcoidosis.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Healthy condition and chronic diseases may be associated with microbiota composition and its properties. The prevalence of respiratory haemophili with respect to their phenotypes including the ability to biofilm formation in patients with sarcoidosis was assayed. METHODS:Nasopharynx and sputum specimens wer...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1793-7

    authors: Kosikowska U,Rybojad P,Stępień-Pyśniak D,Żbikowska A,Malm A

    更新日期:2016-08-26 00:00:00

  • Blood stream infections associated with central and peripheral venous catheters.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:The purposes of this study were to determine the incidence of central and peripheral venous catheter-related bacteraemias, the relationship between the suspected and final confirmed bacteraemia origins, and the differences in microbiological, epidemiological, clinical, and analytical characteristics between ...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12879-019-4505-2

    authors: Ruiz-Giardin JM,Ochoa Chamorro I,Velázquez Ríos L,Jaqueti Aroca J,García Arata MI,SanMartín López JV,Guerrero Santillán M

    更新日期:2019-10-15 00:00:00

  • Helicobacter pylori infection among patients presenting with dyspepsia at a primary care setting in Cameroon: seroprevalence, five-year trend and predictors.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Almost half the world's population is infected with Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) with the highest reported prevalence from Africa. This infection is associated with several morbid gastrointestinal conditions. Understanding the trends in seroprevalence and the factors associated with H. pylori seropositivi...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/s12879-019-3677-0

    authors: Aminde JA,Dedino GA,Ngwasiri CA,Ombaku KS,Mahop Makon CA,Aminde LN

    更新日期:2019-01-08 00:00:00

  • Application of quantitative second-line drug susceptibility testing at a multidrug-resistant tuberculosis hospital in Tanzania.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Lack of rapid and reliable susceptibility testing for second-line drugs used in the treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) may limit treatment success. METHODS:Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from patients referred to Kibong'oto National TB Hospital in Tanzania for second-line TB treatme...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2334-13-432

    authors: Mpagama SG,Houpt ER,Stroup S,Kumburu H,Gratz J,Kibiki GS,Heysell SK

    更新日期:2013-09-14 00:00:00

  • Basis for treatment of tuberculosis among HIV-infected patients in Tanzania: the role of chest x-ray and sputum culture.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Active tuberculosis (TB) is common among HIV-infected persons living in tuberculosis endemic countries, and screening for tuberculosis (TB) is recommended routinely. We sought to determine the role of chest x-ray and sputum culture in the decision to treat for presumptive TB using active case finding in a la...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2334-8-32

    authors: Bakari M,Arbeit RD,Mtei L,Lyimo J,Waddell R,Matee M,Cole BF,Tvaroha S,Horsburgh CR,Soini H,Pallangyo K,von Reyn CF

    更新日期:2008-03-06 00:00:00

  • Safety and efficacy of a caspofungin-based combination therapy for treatment of proven or probable aspergillosis in pediatric hematological patients.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Fungal infections are diagnosed increasingly often in patients affected by hematological diseases and their mortality has remained high. The recent development of new antifungal drugs gives the clinician the possibility to assess the combination of antifungal drugs with in-vitro or in animal-model synergisti...

    journal_title:BMC infectious diseases

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1186/1471-2334-7-28

    authors: Cesaro S,Giacchino M,Locatelli F,Spiller M,Buldini B,Castellini C,Caselli D,Giraldi E,Tucci F,Tridello G,Rossi MR,Castagnola E

    更新日期:2007-04-18 00:00:00