Network analytic methods for epidemiological risk assessment.

Abstract:

:The authors measure the efficacy of three methods for predicting the time to infection for susceptible individuals in a population undergoing an HIV epidemic. The methods differ in whether they require detailed information of the contact network and whether they require knowledge of the initial source of infection. Efficacy is evaluated using simulations for 20 different contact patterns. Only the risk score that uses both kinds of information accounts for more than 15 per cent of individual variability. The efficacy of this score ranges from 10 per cent in very unstructured populations to 60 per cent for spatially localized contact networks. This improved performance may be explained by the larger fraction of the total variability not due to the disease dynamics. When all variables are dichotomized, the two poorer methods produce odds ratios between 1.4 and 2.3. The odds ratio for the risk score with full information ranges from 2.5 to 17. Risk assessment protocols and intervention programmes are encouraged to assess contact patterns and detect sources of infection.

journal_name

Stat Med

journal_title

Statistics in medicine

authors

Altmann M,Wee BC,Willard K,Peterson D,Gatewood LC

doi

10.1002/sim.4780130107

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

1994-01-15 00:00:00

pages

53-60

issue

1

eissn

0277-6715

issn

1097-0258

journal_volume

13

pub_type

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