Prognostic scoring in ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm: a prospective evaluation.

Abstract:

BACKGROUND:Prospective validation of prognostic scoring systems for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is lacking. This study assesses the validity of three established risk scores and a new prognostic index. METHOD:Patients admitted with ruptured AAA during a 26-month period (August 2002-December 2004) were recruited prospectively. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS), Hardman Index, Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) scores, and the Edinburgh Ruptured Aneurysm Score (ERAS) were recorded and related to outcome. RESULTS:During the study period, 111 patients were admitted with ruptured AAA. Of these, 84 (76%) underwent attempted operative repair and were included in the study; 37 (44%) died after operation. The GAS, Hardman Index, and the ERAS were statistically related to mortality. However, analysis by receiver-operator characteristic curve revealed the ERAS to have an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61-0.83). The vascular (V)-POSSUM and ruptured AAA (RAAA)-POSSUM models had an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.59-0.82). The Hardman Index and GAS had an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI, 0.57-0.80) and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.52-0.76), respectively. Although the V-POSSUM equation predicted mortality effectively (P = .086), the RAAA-POSSUM derivative demonstrated a significant lack of fit (P = .009). CONCLUSION:Prospective validation shows that the Hardman Index, GAS, and V-POSSUM and RAAA-POSSUM scores do not perform well as predictors for death after ruptured AAA. The ERAS accurately stratifies perioperative risk but requires further validation.

journal_name

J Vasc Surg

authors

Tambyraja AL,Lee AJ,Murie JA,Chalmers RT

doi

10.1016/j.jvs.2007.10.031

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2008-02-01 00:00:00

pages

282-6

issue

2

eissn

0741-5214

issn

1097-6809

pii

S0741-5214(07)01692-8

journal_volume

47

pub_type

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