Abstract:
:Knowledge about large-scale and long-term dynamics of (natural) populations is required to assess the efficiency of control strategies, the potential for long-term persistence, and the adaptability to global changes such as habitat fragmentation and global warming. For most natural populations, such as pest populations, large-scale and long-term surveys cannot be carried out at a high resolution. For instance, for population dynamics characterized by irregular abundance explosions, i.e., outbreaks, it is common to report detected outbreaks rather than measuring the population density at every location and time event. Here, we propose a mechanical-statistical model for analyzing such outbreak occurrence data and making inference about population dynamics. This spatio-temporal model contains the main mechanisms of the dynamics and describes the observation process. This construction enables us to account for the discrepancy between the phenomenon scale and the sampling scale. We propose the Bayesian method to estimate model parameters, pest densities and hidden factors, i.e., variables involved in the dynamics but not observed. The model was specified and used to learn about the dynamics of the European pine sawfly (Neodiprion sertifer Geoffr., an insect causing major defoliation of pines in northern Europe) based on Finnish sawfly data covering the years 1961-1990. In this application, a dynamical Beverton-Holt model including a hidden regime variable was incorporated into the model to deal with large variations in the population densities. Our results gave support to the idea that pine sawfly dynamics should be studied as metapopulations with alternative equilibria. The results confirmed the importance of extreme minimum winter temperatures for the occurrence of European pine sawfly outbreaks. The strong positive connection between the ratio of lake area over total area and outbreaks was quantified for the first time.
journal_name
Bull Math Bioljournal_title
Bulletin of mathematical biologyauthors
Soubeyrand S,Neuvonen S,Penttinen Adoi
10.1007/s11538-008-9363-9subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2009-02-01 00:00:00pages
318-38issue
2eissn
0092-8240issn
1522-9602journal_volume
71pub_type
杂志文章abstract::Many aquatic organisms detect the presence of moving objects in their environment, such as predators, by sensing the hydrodynamic disturbances the movements produce. The resultant water flow is readily detectable by stationary organisms, but free-swimming organisms are carried with the surrounding water and may not de...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-017-0368-0
更新日期:2018-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::Recent discoveries in ecological stoichiometry have indicated that food quality in terms of the phosphorus/carbon (P/C) ratio affects consumers whether the imbalance involves insufficient or excess nutrients. This phenomenon is called the "stoichiometric P/C knife-edge." In this study, we develop and analyze a produce...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-019-00629-6
更新日期:2019-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::Cell polarization is an important part of the response of eukaryotic cells to stimuli, and forms a primary step in cell motility, differentiation, and many cellular functions. Among the important biochemical players implicated in the onset of intracellular asymmetries that constitute the early phases of polarization a...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-012-9766-5
更新日期:2012-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::Fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP) is used to obtain quantitative information about molecular diffusion and binding kinetics at both cell and tissue levels of organization. FRAP models have been proposed to estimate the diffusion coefficients and binding kinetic parameters of species for a variety of bi...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-016-0241-6
更新日期:2017-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::We address the observation that, in some cases, patients infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) are cleared of HCV when super-infected with the hepatitis A virus (HAV). We hypothesise that this phenomenon can be explained by the competitive exclusion principle, including the action of the immune system, and show th...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-012-9795-0
更新日期:2013-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::A mathematical model is presented for the steps in the elongation process, and the steady-state elongation rate as a function of the amino acid concentrations is found. In addition, the reset sub-process of the elongation process is modeled. The rate of elongation of peptide chains is found to be a function of the con...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/S0092-8240(03)00076-4
更新日期:2003-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::DNA and protein sequence comparisons are performed by a number of computational algorithms. Most of these algorithms search for the alignment of two sequences that optimizes some alignment score. It is an important problem to assess the statistical significance of a given score. In this paper we use newly developed me...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/BF02459930
更新日期:1992-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Cancer is a complex phenomenon, and the sheer variation in behaviour across different types renders it difficult to ascertain underlying biological mechanisms. Experimental approaches frequently yield conflicting results for myriad reasons, and mathematical modelling of cancer is a vital tool to explore what we cannot...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-019-00677-y
更新日期:2020-01-22 00:00:00
abstract::Turing patterns can be observed in reaction-diffusion systems where chemical species have different diffusion constants. In recent years, several studies investigated the effects of noise on Turing patterns and showed that the parameter regimes, for which stochastic Turing patterns are observed, can be larger than the...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-014-0044-6
更新日期:2014-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Premised on relatively simple assumptions, mathematical models like those of Monod, Pirt or Droop inadequately explain the complex transient behavior of microbial populations. In particular, these models fail to explain many aspects of the dynamics of a Tetrahymena pyriformis-Escherichia coli community. In this study ...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/BF02458309
更新日期:1996-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::We develop a numerical method for estimating optimal parameters in a mathematical model of the within-host dynamics of malaria infection. The model consists of a quasilinear system of partial differential equations. Convergence theory for the computed parameters is provided. Following this analysis, we present several...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-011-9650-8
更新日期:2011-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::Using optimal control theory as the basic theoretical tool, we investigate the efficacy of different antibiotic treatment protocols in the most exacting of circumstances, described as follows. Viewing a continuous culture device as a proxy for a much more complex host organism, we first inoculate the device with a sin...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-011-9698-5
更新日期:2012-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::Modellers of large-scale genome rearrangement events, in which segments of DNA are inverted, moved, swapped, or even inserted or deleted, have found a natural syntax in the language of permutations. Despite this, there has been a wide range of modelling choices, assumptions and interpretations that make navigating the...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-018-0514-3
更新日期:2018-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::A system of differential equations for the control of tumor cells growth in a cycle nonspecific chemotherapy is presented. Spontaneously acquired drug resistance is accounted for, as well as the evolution in time of normal cells. In addition, optimization of conflicting objectives forms the aim of the chemotherapeutic...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/BF02458426
更新日期:1997-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::A significant conceptual difficulty in the use of switching systems to model regulatory networks is the presence of so-called "black walls," co-dimension 1 regions of phase space with a vector field pointing inward on both sides of the hyperplane. Black walls result from the existence of direct negative self-regulatio...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-016-0175-z
更新日期:2016-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Bistability and multistationarity are properties of reaction networks linked to switch-like responses and connected to cell memory and cell decision making. Determining whether and when a network exhibits bistability is a hard and open mathematical problem. One successful strategy consists of analyzing small networks ...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-018-00555-z
更新日期:2019-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::The F-actin network and cytosol in the lamellipodia of crawling cells flow in a centripetal pattern and spout-like form, respectively. We have numerically studied this two-phase flow in the realistic geometry of a moving keratocyte. Cytosol has been treated as a low viscosity Newtonian fluid flowing through the high v...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-015-0105-5
更新日期:2015-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::In this paper, we present a model that explains the prepatterning of lymphatic vessel morphology in collagen gels. This model is derived using the theory of two phase rubber material due to Flory and coworkers and it consists of two coupled fourth order partial differential equations describing the evolution of the co...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-008-9324-3
更新日期:2008-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a Gram-negative bacterium that is responsible for a wide range of infections in humans. Colonies employ quorum sensing (QS) to coordinate gene expression, including for virulence factors, swarming motility and complex social traits. The QS signalling system of P. aeruginosa is known to involv...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-017-0288-z
更新日期:2017-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::We study the global stability of a class of models for in-vivo virus dynamics that take into account the Cytotoxic T Lymphocyte immune response and display antigenic variation. This class includes a number of models that have been extensively used to model HIV dynamics. We show that models in this class are globally a...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-010-9543-2
更新日期:2011-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Small populations at risk of extinction due to threshold or competitive exclusion have a vested interest in rapid growth. Taking chance of survival into account for diploid populations, Fisher's theorem predicts a sex ratio favoring females under certain circumstances. Theoretical consideration of competitive exclusio...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-009-9455-1
更新日期:2010-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::This paper is devoted to the investigation of the effects of periodic drug treatment on a standard within-host virus model. We first introduce the basic reproduction ratio for the model, and then show that the infection free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and the disease eventually disappears if R0<1, ...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-013-9820-y
更新日期:2013-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::The propagation of fire-diffuse-fire Ca(2+) waves through a three-dimensional rectangular domain is considered. The domain is infinite in extent in the direction of propagation but with lateral barriers to diffusion which contain Ca(2+) pumps. The Ca(2+) concentration profile due to the firing of a release site (spark...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/S0092-8240(03)00074-0
更新日期:2004-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::This work aims to examine the global behavior of a Gause type predator-prey model considering two aspects: (i) the functional response is Holling type III and, (ii) the prey growth is affected by the Allee effect. We prove the origin of the system is an attractor equilibrium point for all parameter values. It has also...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-010-9577-5
更新日期:2011-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::The comprehension of activities and functions of complex brain structures requires, among other things, information on simultaneous activities in several regions. Results reported in the literature using multi(micro/macro)electrode recordings or imaging techniques provide incomplete information due either to the small...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1006/bulm.1997.0032
更新日期:1998-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::In this paper we introduce and study a model for electrical activity of cardiac membrane which incorporates only an inward and an outward current. This model is useful for three reasons: (1) Its simplicity, comparable to the FitzHugh-Nagumo model, makes it useful in numerical simulations, especially in two or three sp...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/S0092-8240(03)00041-7
更新日期:2003-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Previous models of the renal concentrating mechanism employ ideal approximations of solution thermodynamics for membrane transport calculation. In three-dimensional models of the renal medulla, predicted urine concentrations reach levels where these idealized approximations begin to break down. In this paper we derive...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/BF02460469
更新日期:1994-05-01 00:00:00
abstract::A protein fold can be viewed as a self-avoiding walk in certain lattice model, and its contact map is a graph that represents the patterns of contacts in the fold. Goldman, Istrail, and Papadimitriou showed that a contact map in the 2D square lattice can be decomposed into at most two stacks and one queue. In the term...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-016-0212-y
更新日期:2017-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::To obtain the correlation dimension and entropy from an experimental time series we derive estimators for these quantities together with expressions for their variances using a maximum likelihood approach. The validity of these expressions is supported by Monte Carlo simulations. We illustrate the use of the estimator...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/BF02458619
更新日期:1992-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::Spatial oscillations of proteins in bacteria have recently attracted much attention. The cellular mechanism underlying these oscillations can be studied at molecular as well as at more macroscopic levels. We construct a minimal mathematical model with two proteins that is able to produce self-sustained regular pole-to...
journal_title:Bulletin of mathematical biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1007/s11538-012-9752-y
更新日期:2012-09-01 00:00:00