Abstract:
:The authors review research on judgments of random and nonrandom sequences involving binary events with a focus on studies documenting gambler's fallacy and hot hand beliefs. The domains of judgment include random devices, births, lotteries, sports performances, stock prices, and others. After discussing existing theories of sequence judgments, the authors conclude that in many everyday settings people have naive complex models of the mechanisms they believe generate observed events, and they rely on these models for explanations, predictions, and other inferences about event sequences. The authors next introduce an explanation-based, mental models framework for describing people's beliefs about binary sequences, based on 4 perceived characteristics of the sequence generator: randomness, intentionality, control, and goal complexity. Furthermore, they propose a Markov process framework as a useful theoretical notation for the description of mental models and for the analysis of actual event sequences.
journal_name
Psychol Bulljournal_title
Psychological bulletinauthors
Oskarsson AT,Van Boven L,McClelland GH,Hastie Rdoi
10.1037/a0014821subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2009-03-01 00:00:00pages
262-85issue
2eissn
0033-2909issn
1939-1455pii
2009-02580-008journal_volume
135pub_type
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 评论,杂志文章
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
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更新日期:2017-03-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
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更新日期:1998-07-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1037/a0016570
更新日期:2009-09-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1037/bul0000016
更新日期:2015-11-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 评论,杂志文章
doi:10.1037/0033-2909.126.3.375
更新日期:2000-05-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1037/0033-2909.133.4.651
更新日期:2007-07-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1037/a0021729
更新日期:2011-01-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
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更新日期:2011-07-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1037/0033-2909.105.3.387
更新日期:1989-05-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1037/0033-2909.128.6.978
更新日期:2002-11-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
doi:10.1037/a0034418
更新日期:2014-03-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1037/0033-2909.108.3.551
更新日期:1990-11-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
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pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
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更新日期:2009-11-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1037/0033-2909.134.3.343
更新日期:2008-05-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
doi:10.1037/0033-2909.127.4.520
更新日期:2001-07-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1037/0033-2909.108.1.109
更新日期:1990-07-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
doi:10.1037/bul0000025
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
doi:10.1037/bul0000113
更新日期:2017-10-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
doi:10.1037/0033-2909.132.1.132
更新日期:2006-01-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Psychological bulletin
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
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更新日期:2014-03-01 00:00:00