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Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Thermal Ablation.

Abstract：

PURPOSE:To develop an effective prognostic nomogram for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after thermal ablation. METHODS:A total of 772 patients with intrahepatic primary or recurrent HCC who underwent radiofrequency ablation or microwave ablation between March 2011 and October 2016 were included. 602 patients (mean age, 56.0 ± 11.9 years; 495 male/107 female) were included in the primary cohort to establish a prognostic nomogram. Significant prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) identified by Cox univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to construct the nomogram. The remaining 170 patients (mean age, 55.9 ± 11.9 years; 145 male/25 female) were used to validate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. RESULTS:During a mean follow-up period of 26 months (range 1-85 months), the median OS periods were 48.6 months and 44.0 months for the primary and validation cohorts. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 85.5%, 61.4%, and 43.3% in the primary cohort and 84.7%, 59.6%, and 43.3% in the prospective validation cohort, respectively. Multivariate analysis found that pre-ablation treatment, AFP, CEA, CA19-9, ALBI grade, tumor number, and tumor size (hazard ratio > 1, P < 0.05) were independent risk factors for OS. A nomogram was developed based on these seven variables. The calibration curve for predicting the probability of survival showed a good agreement between the nomogram and actual observation both in the primary (concrete index: 0.699) and validation cohorts (concrete index: 0.734). CONCLUSIONS:This simple nomogram based on seven variables including ALBI grade offers personalized prognostic data for HCC patients after ablation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE:Level 4, case series.

journal_name

Cardiovasc Intervent Radiol

journal_title

Cardiovascular and interventional radiology

authors

Ding M,Zhao X,Zhao M,Shi Y,Wang T,Cui D,Shi D,Zhai B

doi

10.1007/s00270-020-02617-z

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2020-11-01 00:00:00

pages

1621-1630

issue

11

eissn

0174-1551

issn

1432-086X

pii

10.1007/s00270-020-02617-z

journal_volume

43

pub_type

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