Abstract：
OBJECTIVE:To estimate smoking-attributable mortality in the long-term future in 29 European countries using a novel data-driven forecasting approach that integrates the wave pattern of the smoking epidemic and the cohort dimension. METHODS:We estimated and forecasted age-specific and age-standardised smoking-attributable mortality fractions (SAMF) and 95% projection intervals for 29 European countries by sex, 1950-2100, using age-period-cohort modelling with a generalised logit link function. We projected the (decelerating) period increases (women) by a quadratic curve to obtain future declines, and extrapolated the past period decline (men). In addition, we extrapolated the recent cohort trend. RESULTS:SAMF among men are projected to decline from, on average, 25% in 2014 (11% (Sweden)-41% (Hungary)) to 11% in 2040 (range: 6.3%-15.4%), 7% in 2065 (range: 5.9%-9.4%) and 6% in 2100. SAMF among women in 21 non-Eastern European countries, currently at an average of 16%, are projected to reach peak levels in 2013 (Northern Europe), 2019 (Western Europe), 2027 (Greece, Italy) and 2022 (Central Europe), with maximum levels of, on average, 17% (8% (Greece)-28% (Denmark)), and to decline to 10% in 2040 (range: 4%-20%), 5% in 2065 (range: 3.5%-7.6%) and 4% in 2100. For women, a short-term shift in the peak of the inverse U-shaped age pattern to higher ages is projected, and crossovers between the age-specific trends. CONCLUSION:Our novel forecasting method enabled realistic estimates of the mortality imprint of the smoking epidemic in Europe up to 2100. The high peak values in smoking-attributable mortality projected for women warrant attention.
journal_name
Tob Controljournal_title
Tobacco controlauthors
Janssen F,El Gewily S,Bardoutsos Adoi
10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2020-055658subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2020-08-07 00:00:00eissn
0964-4563issn
1468-3318pii
tobaccocontrol-2020-055658pub_type
杂志文章相关文献
TOBACCO CONTROL文献大全abstract：OBJECTIVE:To assess tobacco promotion intensity, retailer behaviours and tobacco company efforts to link retailer marketing to online channels. METHODS:We completed an audit of tobacco advertisements and promotions at 1000 randomly selected cigarette retailers in Denpasar, Bali, Indonesia that included an observation ...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054833
更新日期：2019-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:A fast acting, clean nicotine delivery system might substantially displace cigarettes. Public health consequences would depend on the subsequent prevalence of nicotine use, hazards of delivery systems, and intrinsic hazards of nicotine. METHODS:A spreadsheet program, DEMANDS, estimates differences in expect...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tc.12.2.124
更新日期：2003-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVES:To describe the prevalence of tobacco smoking in an urban East African population while using a simple validation procedure to examine the degree of under reporting in men and women. DESIGN:A cross sectional population based study in adults (15 years and over) with sampling from a well maintained census reg...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tc.11.3.210
更新日期：2002-09-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVES:This study estimates the relative contribution of policies implemented between 1998 and 2010 to reductions in smoking prevalence by 2010. It then models the impact of implementing stronger policies, relative to a scenario of inaction, on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality in Ireland. METH...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2011-050248
更新日期：2013-05-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:Increasing the price of cigarettes reduces consumption, with a global price elasticity of approximately -0.4. In the UK where the cost of cigarettes is already relatively high, there is an issue surrounding public acceptance of further price rises ahead of the inflation rate. Previous research suggests that p...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tc.2009.033274
更新日期：2010-08-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:Identify the population of internet e-cigarette vendors (IEVs) and conduct content analyses of their age verification, purchase and delivery methods in 2013 and 2014. METHODS:We used multiple sources to identify IEV websites, primarily complex search algorithms scanning more than 180 million websites. In 201...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2016-053616
更新日期：2018-05-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:To analyse the dynamics of smoking prevalence, initiation, and cessation in relation to sex, age, birth cohort, study year, and educational level. DESIGN:Six independent cross-sectional population surveys repeated every five years between 1972 and 1997. SETTING:The provinces of North Karelia and Kuopio in e...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tc.8.2.161
更新日期：1999-07-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:To characterise the relative amount and type of daily newspaper, local and national TV newscast, and national news magazine coverage of tobacco control issues in the United States in 2002 and 2003. DESIGN:Content analysis of daily newspapers, news magazines, and TV newscasts. SUBJECTS:Items about tobacco in...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tc.2005.014456
更新日期：2006-10-01 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:The purpose of this study was to examine attitudes towards attempts to limit second-hand smoke (SHS) in five Eastern European nations. METHODS:The data consist of a Eurobarometer (64.3) survey distributed from November to December 2005. Logistic regression was employed to investigate support levels for indo...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tc.2009.029769
更新日期：2010-10-01 00:00:00
abstract：:'The Holy See cannot be cooperating with a practice that is clearly harming the health of people'. This is the reason behind Pope Francis banning the sale of tobacco products inside the Vatican in January 2018. Just outside the Holy See, in Italy, cigarette sales produce around €13 billion of fiscal revenues every yea...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054341
更新日期：2019-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:To examine self service tobacco displays (SSTDs) and youth retail tobacco access by comparing longitudinal illegal tobacco sales rates in three communities in Santa Barbara County, California, that considered or implemented ordinances banning SSTDs. A confirmatory survey was also conducted to substantiate the...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tc.9.1.71
更新日期：2000-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVES:To examine the extensive research undertaken by the tobacco industry over the past 25 years toward development of a fire safe cigarette. METHODS:Research was conducted through a web based search of internal tobacco industry documents made publicly available through the 1998 Master Settlement Agreement. RES...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章,评审
doi：10.1136/tc.11.4.346
更新日期：2002-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Observational studies and a few clinical trials suggest that use of low nitrosamine smokeless tobacco (snus) can facilitate smoking cessation. To better understand the real-world impact of snus on smoking behaviour, a large-scale, long-term clinical trial of naturalistic snus use among smokers is needed. ST...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi：10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2015-052783
更新日期：2017-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:As part of the Smoke-Free Illinois Act, smoking on the gambling floors of all commercial casinos in Illinois became prohibited. This study examined the effects of the Smoke-Free Illinois Act on casino admissions per-capita and real per-capita adjusted gross receipts using 18 years of data (10 years before and...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2017-053966
更新日期：2018-10-01 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Cigarette companies argue that tobacco control measures will harm the Russian economy. Research in other countries has refuted this claim. OBJECTIVE:To identify how current and former smokers would (or did) spend their cigarette money if (or when) they quit smoking. METHODS:A nationwide face-to-face survey...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tc.2009.030882
更新日期：2009-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:To determine what the tobacco industry knew about the potential effects of menthol on smoking topography-how a person smokes a cigarette. METHODS:A snowball strategy was used to systematically search the Legacy Tobacco Documents Library (http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu) between 1 June 2010 and 9 August 2010. ...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章,评审
doi：10.1136/tc.2010.041988
更新日期：2011-05-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:To identify the international philanthropies that have invested in tobacco control in China, describe their role and strategies in changing the social norms of tobacco use, and define the outcomes achieved. METHODS:Information on the international philanthropic donor China projects, including activities and ...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2012-050924
更新日期：2013-09-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the replacement of Western Australian tobacco sponsorship with health promotion sponsorship by the Western Australian Health Promotion Foundation (known as "Healthway"), following the Tobacco Control Act 1990. DESIGN:Process measures of performance were collected from 25 tobacco replacement proje...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tc.6.2.115
更新日期：1997-07-01 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Philip Morris International has made efforts to expand the sale of its heated tobacco product, IQOS, into new domestic markets globally. In Australia, where heated tobacco products are prohibited, the company recently attempted to overturn Australian legislation in order to permit their sale. In light of thi...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2020-056057
更新日期：2020-11-15 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:To estimate youth exposure to smoking in movies in the UK and compare the likely effect with the USA. METHODS:We collected tobacco occurrences data for 572 top-grossing films in the UK screened from 2001 to 2006 and estimated the number of on-screen tobacco impressions delivered to British youths in this tim...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tc.2009.034991
更新日期：2010-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND/AIM:Smoking prevalence rates are declining in most industrialised countries, partly because of growing cessation rates. However, little is known on recent time-trends in smoking cessation by socioeconomic position. This study aims to estimate educational inequalities in smoking cessation trends in Italy betw...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tc.2008.029280
更新日期：2009-10-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:To characterise patterns of cigarette smoking and smoking cessation among older adults in the United States. DESIGN:Data from the National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS) 1965-94 were analysed. The NHIS is a cross-sectional survey using a representative national sample. SETTING:In most cases interviews were...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tc.6.3.175
更新日期：1997-10-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:To determine the prevalence and correlates of cigarette smoking among adults in high mountain rural areas of northern Pakistan. DESIGN:Cross sectional survey. PARTICIPANTS:A sample of 4203 adults (aged 18 years and over) were selected by stratified random sampling from 16 villages. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE:Sel...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tc.10.1.e1
更新日期：2001-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Philip Morris (PM) launched the Philip Morris External Research Program (PMERP) in 2000, two years after the company agreed to the dissolution of two industry-wide, external research programmes: the Council for Tobacco Research (CTR) and the Center for Indoor Air Research (CIAR). Our previous analysis of PME...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tc.2005.012799
更新日期：2006-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:To assess the impact of a 2007 cigarette tax increase from 110% to 140% of the price to the retailer on cigarette price and consumption among Mexican smokers, including efforts to offset price increases. METHODS:Data were analysed from the 2006 and 2007 administrations of the International Tobacco Control (I...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tc.2009.032177
更新日期：2010-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Tobacco companies' intentions to influence the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) via the Conference of Parties (COP; the official biannual meeting where Parties review the Convention) are well documented. We aimed to analyse Twitter data to gain insights into tobacco industry tactics, argume...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2020-055889
更新日期：2020-11-11 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:To identify patterns in trial testimony that may reflect on the intentions or expectations of tobacco manufacturers with regard to the introduction of potential reduced exposure products (PREPs). DESIGN:Research was conducted using the Deposition and Trial Testimony Archive (DATTA) collection of trial testim...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章,评审
doi：10.1136/tc.2004.009787
更新日期：2006-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:To identify and explain tobacco industry strategy in undermining tobacco control measures in Finland and results of these interferences in tobacco policy development during the 1980s and early 1990s. METHODS:Tobacco industry documents, which have been publicly available on the internet as a result of litigat...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tc.12.4.414
更新日期：2003-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:To determine the incidence of off-label use of, abuse of, and dependence on prescription nicotine inhaler. DESIGN:Prospective telephone and internet interviews for six months. PARTICIPANTS:535 new inhaler users. MAIN OUTCOME:Structured interview about off-label use (that is, use of inhaler for non-cessatio...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tc.2004.008367
更新日期：2005-02-01 00:00:00
abstract：INTRODUCTION:Health warning labels (HWLs) on tobacco packaging can be used to provide smoking cessation information, but the impact of this information is not well understood. METHODS:Online consumer panels of adult smokers from Canada, Australia and Mexico were surveyed in September 2012, January 2013 and May 2013; r...
journal_title：Tobacco control
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2014-051589
更新日期：2015-03-01 00:00:00
