Investigating the effect of social changes on age-specific gun-related homicide rates in New York City during the 1990s.

Abstract:

OBJECTIVES:We assessed whether New York City's gun-related homicide rates in the 1990s were associated with a range of social determinants of homicide rates. METHODS:We used cross-sectional time-series data for 74 New York City police precincts from 1990 through 1999, and we estimated Bayesian hierarchical models with a spatial error term. Homicide rates were estimated separately for victims aged 15-24 years (youths), 25-34 years (young adults), and 35 years or older (adults). RESULTS:Decreased cocaine consumption was associated with declining homicide rates in youths (posterior median [PM] = 0.25; 95% Bayesian confidence interval [BCI] = 0.07, 0.45) and adults (PM = 0.07; 95% BCI = 0.02, 0.12), and declining alcohol consumption was associated with fewer homicides in young adults (PM = 0.14; 95% BCI = 0.02, 0.25). Receipt of public assistance was associated with fewer homicides for young adults (PM = -104.20; 95% BCI = -182.0, -26.14) and adults (PM = -28.76; 95% BCI = -52.65, -5.01). Misdemeanor policing was associated with fewer homicides in adults (PM = -0.01; 95% BCI = -0.02, -0.001). CONCLUSIONS:Substance use prevention policies and expansion of the social safety net may be able to cause major reductions in homicide among age groups that drive city homicide trends.

journal_name

Am J Public Health

authors

Cerdá M,Messner SF,Tracy M,Vlahov D,Goldmann E,Tardiff KJ,Galea S

doi

10.2105/AJPH.2008.158238

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2010-06-01 00:00:00

pages

1107-15

issue

6

eissn

0090-0036

issn

1541-0048

pii

AJPH.2008.158238

journal_volume

100

pub_type

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