Abstract:
:The efficient use of operating theatres requires accurate case scheduling. One common method is 'booking to the mean'. Here, the mean times for individual operations are summed to approximate the time allocated to the list. An alternative approach is 'probabilistic scheduling'. Here, the means and standard deviation of the individual case times are combined to estimate the probability that the planned list will finish on time. This study assessed how probabilistic booking would have changed list utilisation, over-running and case cancellations in 60 urology lists during eight months that had been 'booked to the mean'. Booking to the mean resulted in 53/60 (88%) lists over-running and correctly predicted the finish times in just 13% of lists. Out of 264 patients, 36 (14%) were cancelled on the day due to over-runs in 24/60 (40%) lists. In contrast, probabilistic scheduling correctly predicted an over-run or under-run in 77% of lists, which would have allowed the case mix to be adjusted to prevent cancellation and optimise utilisation.
journal_name
Anaesthesiajournal_title
Anaesthesiaauthors
Pandit JJdoi
10.1111/anae.14958subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2020-05-01 00:00:00pages
642-647issue
5eissn
0003-2409issn
1365-2044journal_volume
75pub_type
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