Abstract:
:We consider the spread of an epidemic through a population divided into n sub-populations, in which individuals move between populations according to a Markov transition matrix Σ and infectives can only make infectious contacts with members of their current population. Expressions for the basic reproduction number, R₀, and the probability of extinction of the epidemic are derived. It is shown that in contrast to contact distribution models, the distribution of the infectious period effects both the basic reproduction number and the probability of extinction of the epidemic in the limit as the total population size N→∞. The interactions between the infectious period distribution and the transition matrix Σ mean that it is not possible to draw general conclusions about the effects on R₀ and the probability of extinction. However, it is shown that for n=2, the basic reproduction number, R₀, is maximised by a constant length infectious period and is decreasing in ς, the speed of movement between the two populations.
journal_name
Math Bioscijournal_title
Mathematical biosciencesauthors
Neal Pdoi
10.1016/j.mbs.2012.01.002subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2012-03-01 00:00:00pages
31-5issue
1eissn
0025-5564issn
1879-3134pii
S0025-5564(12)00004-1journal_volume
236pub_type
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