Reconstruction and prediction of viral disease epidemics.

Abstract:

:A growing number of infectious pathogens are spreading among geographic regions. Some pathogens that were previously not considered to pose a general threat to human health have emerged at regional and global scales, such as Zika and Ebola Virus Disease. Other pathogens, such as yellow fever virus, were previously thought to be under control but have recently re-emerged, causing new challenges to public health organisations. A wide array of new modelling techniques, aided by increased computing capabilities, novel diagnostic tools, and the increased speed and availability of genomic sequencing allow researchers to identify new pathogens more rapidly, assess the likelihood of geographic spread, and quantify the speed of human-to-human transmission. Despite some initial successes in predicting the spread of acute viral infections, the practicalities and sustainability of such approaches will need to be evaluated in the context of public health responses.

journal_name

Epidemiol Infect

authors

Kraemer MUG,Cummings DAT,Funk S,Reiner RC,Faria NR,Pybus OG,Cauchemez S

doi

10.1017/S0950268818002881

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2018-11-05 00:00:00

pages

1-7

eissn

0950-2688

issn

1469-4409

pii

S0950268818002881

pub_type

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