Principal components and generalized linear modeling in the correlation between hospital admissions and air pollution.

Abstract:

:OBJECTIVE To analyze the association between concentrations of air pollutants and admissions for respiratory causes in children. METHODS Ecological time series study. Daily figures for hospital admissions of children aged < 6, and daily concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) were analyzed in the Região da Grande Vitória, ES, Southeastern Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2010. For statistical analysis, two techniques were combined: Poisson regression with generalized additive models and principal model component analysis. Those analysis techniques complemented each other and provided more significant estimates in the estimation of relative risk. The models were adjusted for temporal trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteorological factors and autocorrelation. In the final adjustment of the model, it was necessary to include models of the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (p, q) type in the residuals in order to eliminate the autocorrelation structures present in the components. RESULTS For every 10:49 μg/m3 increase (interquartile range) in levels of the pollutant PM10 there was a 3.0% increase in the relative risk estimated using the generalized additive model analysis of main components-seasonal autoregressive - while in the usual generalized additive model, the estimate was 2.0%. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the usual generalized additive model, in general, the proposed aspect of generalized additive model - principal component analysis, showed better results in estimating relative risk and quality of fit.

journal_name

Rev Saude Publica

journal_title

Revista de saude publica

authors

Souza JB,Reisen VA,Santos JM,Franco GC

doi

10.1590/s0034-8910.2014048005078

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2014-06-01 00:00:00

pages

451-8

issue

3

eissn

0034-8910

issn

1518-8787

pii

S0034-89102014000300451

journal_volume

48

pub_type

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